Detroit Tigers: Five Key Spring Training Battles

The Detroit Tigers don’t figure to be particularly good in 2021, but they have at least addressed most of the holes on their roster, so their spring training camp figures to be relatively free of drama.

We know injuries and camp performances will eventually thrust new names into (or out of) the mix, but for now let’s focus on the few clear spring training battles we already see, beginning behind the dish.

Spring Training Battle: Backup Catcher

For a few months this off season it appeared the Detroit Tigers were content to let their internal candidates duke it out for starting catcher duty, but then the club signed Wilson Ramos in late January. Ramos is coming off a rough season, but he’s a former all-star and generally durable, so he figures to handle 100-120 games behind the plate this year. That leaves 40-60 games for our other contenders.

Candidates: Grayson Greiner, Jake Rogers

Long Shots: Dustin Garneau, Eric Haase

Fans and analysts pondered why Jake Rogers, MCB’s number 14 prospect, never got a chance to play with Detroit last year while Greiner and Haase struggled so mightily. It didn’t take long for A.J. Hinch to suggest what the issue was with Rogers:

“The one thing I want Jake to know,” Hinch said on Saturday. “All eyes are on his offense, right, on whether he can be an everyday player? But the reality is, from his manager, I want him to know that he will lose playing time and lose a spot on the roster more because of what he does on defense.

It seems likely the previous coaching staff had a similar opinion, so we begin spring training by giving Grayson Greiner the slight edge here. Rogers can certainly improve, and Greiner’s well-below average offensive production (career OPS of .568 in 104 games) figures to eventually end his chances. But if the organization wants Rogers to get more consistent on defense, it seems like the best course of action is to give him regular playing time in Triple-A while the player they trust more handles playing once or twice a week in Detroit.

Odds to Win the Job: Greiner 50%, Rogers 40%, Garneau 5%, Haase 5%

Spring Training Battle: Starting Rotation

The Detroit Tigers head into spring training with a lot of pitchers and not a lot of solidified jobs. At this point it’s probably only safe to pencil two arms into the rotation: Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull. After the signing of Julio Teheran last week there are no fewer than eight arms competing for the final three (or four?) spots in the rotation.

Candidates: Michael Fulmer, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Julio Teheran, José Ureña

Long Shots: Tyler Alexander, Daniel Norris, Matt Manning

As hinted at above, we still don’t know if the Tigers will go with a five-man rotation or a six-man rotation this year. There are a lot of innings to handle, and a number of young arms to protect, so the Tigers may even go deeper, using a four- or five-man rotation followed by a tandem start each week. That’s the path we see right now.

José Ureña has been used as a swing man in the past, but given how early the team signed him it seems probable he’ll join the rotation. It also seems likely Teheran makes the staff, even though he isn’t technically on the 40-man roster yet, and his 2020 season was objectively awful. He has a long history of eating innings, and that’s what this team needs.

There has been talk of Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander competing for a shot at the rotation, but both performed well last year in their roles as long relievers. Michael Fulmer struggled mightily in 2020, but he’s still recovering from a pair of surgeries, and it behooves the organization at least try to get him back to his previous form. The guess here is we see a return to a tandem setup, where Fulmer pitches as long as he can as the nominal starter, and Alexander comes in after him.

We finish with the prospects. Manning is the biggest long shot, but he certainly has the talent to win a spot. That leaves Mize and Skubal, who both hit some speed bumps in limited MLB action last year. We think Skubal showed more signs of being effective at the MLB level, so if any of the prospects wins a job we think it’s him.

Odds to Win a Rotation Spot: Teheran 70%, Ureña 70%, Fulmer 40%, Skubal 30%, Alexander 10%, Norris 10%, Mize 10%, Manning 5%

Spring Training Battle: The Outfield

It’s clear the Detroit Tigers viewed their outfield as a big weakness last year. Though JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes both had stretches of solid play, Detroit’s outfield as a unit finished 25th in fWAR for the season. So the club signed Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara to presumably handle the corners on a regular basis, leaving center field and a 4th or 5th outfielder spot as the main questions.

Candidates: JaCoby Jones, Victor Reyes

Long Shots: Daz Cameron, Christin Stewart, Akil Baddoo

This one seems fairly simple on the surface. JaCoby Jones has been the team’s primary starter in center field for the past three years, and he figures to have the inside track on the job again in 2021. Victor Reyes has played a decent amount of center himself, but he seems to fit better as the 4th outfielder. But not so fast.

Over the past two seasons Reyes has been nearly equal to Jones on offense (96 wRC+ to 100) while grading out better on defense and stealing twice as many bases. He has also produced more WAR than Jones to both FanGraphs (2.4 to 0.6) and Baseball Reference (1.7 to 0.5). There’s been plenty of talk about Reyes forming an outfield platoon with Mazara (who is still six months younger than Reyes), but it seems just as likely we see him platoon with Jones.

And then there’s the matter of a 5th outfielder. Given what we know about A.J. Hinch’s fondness for versatility, we think it’s far more likely he elects to use a super utility player or two, rather than a dedicated 5th outfielder. That spells bad news for Christin Stewart, whose left-handed power potential and draft status are likely the only things keeping him on the 40-man roster. We also don’t see Rule 5 pick Akil Baddoo sticking on the roster this year. Hinch understands the rebuild, but he’s also old-school enough to not roster players who can’t help the team. Cameron would have the best shot to stick as an extra outfielder, but he’s another player who would be better served getting regular ABs in Toledo.

Odds to Win a Job: Jones 100%, Reyes 90%, Cameron 8%, Stewart 1%, Baddoo 1%

Spring Training Battle: Closer

Depending on one’s perspective, the Detroit Tigers heading into camp with four legitimate contenders to close is either a good thing or a terrible thing. Fielding a good closer on a bad team always feels like an unnecessary luxury, like a spoiler on a mail truck, but it does make a manager’s job a bit easier. Hinch recently admitted he would have a dedicated closer, but not necessarily a 9th-inning guy:

Candidates: José Cisnero, Bryan Garcia, Joe Jiménez, Gregory Soto

Long Shots: Beau Burrows, Buck Farmer, Kyle Funkhouser, Zack Hess, Alex Lange

The four main contenders here form an interesting group. Garcia was the last man standing in 2020, but he had an extremely low strikeout rate, and it remains to be seen how much weight the new coaching staff places on last season. Jiménez has the most experience, with 17 career saves, but he’s also been one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons.

Soto has the most electric arm, with a nasty triple-digit sinker from the left side, but his slider isn’t consistent and he walks too many batters. That leaves Cisnero, who has good enough stuff to pitch in the late innings and has developed solid control, but blew his only save chance last year.

Relievers are very strange, so any one of the above players could quickly seize the role this spring. Or they could all implode, and one of the long shot candidates could grab the job. Of that group, Funkhouser and Hess have the best stuff, but anything can happen in the bullpen.

Odds to Win the Job: Cisnero 25%, Jiménez 25%, Garcia 20%, Soto 20%, Burrows 2%, Farmer 2%, Funkhouser 2%, Hess 2%, Lange 2%