The Detroit Tigers Have Started Winning Trades

The Detroit Tigers are deep into their rebuild now, and after a pretty ugly start, it looks as though they are finally starting to win their trades.

The phrase “win a trade” is a bit misleading, because it implies the other team (or teams) lost the deal. Sometimes trades work out well for both sides, and sometimes they don’t work for anybody.

Unfortunately for Al Avila and the Detroit Tigers, they lost most of their big, early trades, and that has a chance to cripple this rebuild. We’ve gone in-depth on the J.D. Martinez and Justin Verlander deals before, so there’s no need to beat a dead horse.

But the Detroit Tigers also didn’t get much in return for their Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler deals. Elvin Rodriguez and Wilkel Hernandez are interesting pitchers, but neither made our Top 20 Detroit Tigers prospects list. That’s four All-Star players gone for next to nothing.

It also seems like the Detroit Tigers have waited too long to deal their talent and aren’t maximizing player value, but without knowing other trade offers we can’t really comment.

Obviously it’s not ideal to come out behind on your biggest trades, but any incremental improvement is important during a rebuild. Most of the subsequent trades have been smaller, but a pattern seems to be emerging.

The Detroit Tigers have hit on a lot of their more recent trades.

So for now let’s take a look at some of these positive trade outcomes to see what the Detroit Tigers have.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 1 – Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes

Wilson/Avila bWAR for Chicago – 1.2

Candelario/Paredes bWAR for Detroit – 4.1

WAR isn’t the only way to measure these deals, but we’re including it so you can tell your friends at parties. This isn’t one of the more recent deals, but it still merits discussion. Jeimer Candelario has had a bit of an up-and-down career with the Tigers, but he was excellent last year and he seems like either a key part of the future, or a solid trade piece. Paredes still hasn’t established himself, but he’s one of Detroit’s top prospects and could be a big part of the team in the next few seasons. This wasn’t a total loss for the Cubs though, as Avila and Wilson helped them win the Division and the 2017 ALDS, though Wilson had some control issues. He was a key member of their 2018 bullpen, too.

Verdict – This is a clear win for the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 2 – Willi Castro

Martín/Dowdy bWAR for Cleveland – 0.0

Castro bWAR for Detroit – 0.5

These WAR numbers don’t look pretty, but Detroit’s number seems likely to grow quite a bit over the next few seasons. This trade made sense for both teams, as Cleveland was perpetually looking for outfield help and had a logjam in the infield, and Detroit had traded away most of their infield prospects over the previous 3-4 seasons. Martín’s tenure in Cleveland was a failure, though that wasn’t really his fault. He hit two home runs in his first six games with the club, but then he missed the rest of the season with a bacterial infection that nearly killed him. He returned for 2019 but was designated for assignment after hitting just .199 with 9 home runs in 62 games. Dowdy saw an immediate velocity spike when he landed in the Cleveland system, as one does, and was later selected in the Rule 5 Draft, waived, picked up by the Rangers, and then returned to Cleveland. Willi Castro, meanwhile, was one of the best rookie hitters in 2020, and while he needs to work on his defense and plate discipline, he looks like a legitimate regular for the Tigers.

Verdict – Another clear win for the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 3 – Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore

Fiers bWAR for Oakland – 0.8

Shore/Blackwood bWAR for Detroit – NA

The Tigers and A’s seemed to dance around a Fiers trade for a few weeks, and then the deadline came and went.  They consummated the deal a week later, with Detroit agreeing to take two players-to-be-named for Fiers. Those players ended up being Nolan Blackwood and Logan Shore, who haven’t reached the Majors, and if they ever do it will likely be as middle relievers. Fiers was strong for Oakland down the stretch, but they let him enter free agency, and then re-signed him. But the most interesting part of this trade is the hypothetical. Maybe if the Tigers trade Fiers to a different team he doesn’t spend 2 years getting pummeled by the division-rival Houston Astros (0-2, 8.34 ERA in 29 IP). And maybe if he’s on another team he’s not quite as eager to spill the beans about Houston’s scandalous sign-stealing operation. And if that doesn’t happen then A.J. Hinch is still the head coach in Houston, and the Detroit Tigers are heading into year one of the Don Kelly regime.

Verdict – A probable loss for the Tigers on players, but a huge win for the organization.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 4 – Alex Lange and Paul Richan

Castellanos bWAR for Chicago – 1.5

Lange/Richan bWAR for Detroit – NA

Castellanos went off for the Cubs after this trade, batting .321 with 16 home runs in just 51 games with the club. He didn’t walk and his defense was poor, but it didn’t matter because he was mashing. That wasn’t enough to save the flagging Cubs, however, as they went just 27-28 down the stretch and finished 3rd in the NL Central. Castellanos was a fan favorite in his limited time in Chicago, but he moved on to Cincinnati in free agency. The Tigers’ end of this deal is still to be determined, though at least part of it is looking good. Alex Lange was a first-round pick for the Cubs, but Chicago was developing him as a starter and things weren’t going well. Detroit immediately moved him to the bullpen, and the results have been promising. Lange’s fastball is averaging 97 MPH this spring, and he has flashed a plus breaking ball. He was optioned out of camp today, but he looks like he may have late-inning potential. Paul Richan isn’t a highly touted prospect, but he’s an analytically minded guy with four fringe-average pitches who could eventually find his way to the big leagues.

Verdict – Solid chance to be a draw or win for the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Trade No. 6 – Zack Short

Maybin bWAR for Chicago – (-0.1)

Short bWAR for Detroit – NA

In a very strange year, the Tigers and Cubs made a very minor deadline deal. Chicago was once again looking for some veteran outfield help, but apparently not looking terribly hard. Maybin saw action in 18 games down the stretch, hitting .250 with no home runs, and he went 0-for-2 in Chicago’s shocking Wild Card series loss to the Marlins. Short wasn’t at Chicago’s alternate training site last year, and he hasn’t seen the Majors yet, but he was pretty impressive in spring training. He, too, was optioned today, but not before he made his presence known on defense and at the plate. He may not hit a ton, but he looks the part of a future utility infielder — possibly a super utility man — and his defense and surprising pop could make him valuable in the future.

Verdict – Solid chance to be a draw or win for the Tigers.