Detroit Tigers: Let’s Look At Akil Baddoo’s Strikeouts

Akil Baddoo has rightfully been the talk of the early Detroit Tigers season. His first few games will remain legendary, and him dominating despite never playing above High-A made it all the more compelling.

A slump was always going to come for Akil Baddoo, because slumps come for everyone in baseball. Fans would do well to remind themselves it’s a minor miracle Akil Baddoo is in the big leagues at all this year.

But it is worth discussing the nature of this particular slump. Akil Baddoo is now hitless in his last ten at-bats, with eight strikeouts. He has struck out in six consecutive plate appearances.

Is the bloom already off the Akil Baddoo rose? Have opposing pitchers figured out his weaknesses? There’s only one way to find out…let’s go to the tape.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout One

Good afternoon, good evening, and good night. Astros pitcher Brandon Bielak gave Baddoo three different pitches, each with different movement profiles and velocities. This sequence would strike out a lot of hitters. He misses the target with his 4-seamer, and it heads down and in, a traditional happy spot for left-handed hitters. But it seems to dive at the last second and Baddoo swings over top of it. They go low again, but this time with a changeup. It’s 5 MPH slower than the fastball, moving in the opposite direction, and perfectly located. Finally, they change the eye level with a nasty cutter that dances across the zone toward Baddoo’s hands. It’s hard to fault the kid for this AB.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Two

A classic yo-yo sequence here. Astros reliever Ryne Stanek throws hard, but this first pitch is a ball out of his hand and an easy take up and away. Stanek comes back with his splitter, which looks like a strike for about 58 feet before breaking wide at the last moment. It seems doubtful Baddoo knew that would happen, but it wasn’t what he was looking for so he let it pass. He’s up 2-0 now, and sitting dead red on the fastball. He gets it, and is millimeters away from hitting it 450 feet, but it’s a harmless foul tip.

The 4th pitch is a splitter that doesn’t split, and it’s just sitting on a tee, but Baddoo doesn’t offer. Maybe he was thinking about just missing the previous pitch and hoping he got another heater? Stanek goes with the high fastball next, but Baddoo does a good job of laying off it. They finish him off by changing the eye level again, this time with a nasty splitter in a perfect location. There’s not much Baddoo can do about that, but he missed two chances to do damage earlier in the AB.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Four

Yusmeiro Petit’s fastballs have averaged 88 MPH or less in each of the last four seasons, but he has been one of the most dependable long relievers in baseball in that time. So Akil Baddoo should expect the kitchen sink from Petit, and that’s what he gets. Baddoo is ready for the first-pitch curve, but he just gets under it and fouls it away. It’s easy to lay off the fastball up and in, but that’s probably just to set up the changeup low and away. Petit does throw the change, makes a mistake with his location, but Baddoo swings right through it.

Baddoo stays on the fastball away and fouls it back, and then does a great job of laying off an attempted backdoor cutter and a changeup low to work the count full. But Petit doubles-up on the change, puts it in a great location, and gets an off-balance flail from Baddoo. He falls victim to a veteran arm here, and this was a nice AB, but once again we see Baddoo miss on his two chances to drive the ball.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Five

Sergio Romo wishes he threw as hard as Yusmeiro Petit. Romo’s fastball hasn’t averaged 88 MPH since 2015, and he’s thrown just three pitches at 85 MPH in 2021. But, like Petit, he’s still in the majors thanks to movement and guile. On his first pitch he catches Baddoo swinging on a nasty sinker that shows 35 inches of drop and 21 inches of horizontal movement. But Baddoo seems to download that offering quickly and holds off on the next two sinkers.

So Romo goes to plan B, folding in a signature backdoor slider to even the count. And then he gets Baddoo swinging with a pretty good changeup. It shows the same 21 inches of horizontal movement as that first sinker, but it comes 5 MPH slower and drops another four inches. That was probably the only hittable pitch of the AB, but it’s hard to blame Baddoo for missing it.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Six

There’s not a lot of mystery or deception here. Frankie Montas comes at Akil Baddoo with five consecutive sinkers, all at roughly the same velocity. We see Baddoo square to bunt for the first time this season, perhaps because he is beginning to feel the weight of his mini-slump, or maybe he’s just trying to keep the defense honest. He pulls back in time on the first pitch to take a ball, and then on the second pitch he’s trying to push a bunt down the third-base line, but doesn’t quite get the bat angled right and hits a harmless foul.

The next sinker is a relatively easy take up and in to get into a favorable count, but then we once again see Baddoo swing through a seemingly driveable pitch, though it is hard and a little elevated. And then Montas breaks out the moneymaker. A nasty 96-MPH sinker that looks exactly like Ball 2, but then swings back to catch the inside corner. Baddoo didn’t have a chance.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Seven

Baddoo once again gets five sinkers from Montas in their second confrontation, but Oakland’s hurler mixes in a few wrinkles as well. He starts with a short slider that never really threatens the zone. So it’s back to sinker well, and Baddoo take a good hack but fouls the ball back. He tries the front-door again, but this time it’s a 4-seamer with no swing-back action.

So Baddoo is ahead in the count and ready to launch, but yet again he swings through a hittable pitch. Montas sticks with the sinker for the rest of the AB, failing to get the swing-back pitch for Ball 3, and then getting away with another hittable offering Baddoo just misses. He elevates his final sinker and Baddoo swings under it for his 5th consecutive strikeout.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Eight

Our final strikeout comes courtesy of Jake Diekman, who used to hit 100 MPH with his fastball, but is topping out at about 96 early this season. This is Baddoo’s 5th plate appearance against a lefty, and like Manaea before him, Diekman has one of the more extreme release points among lefties in baseball. His first slider appears to be heading directly at Baddoo’s back before curling inside for a ball. The next slider seems not to move at all and very nearly hits Baddoo in the head. He did well to get out of the way.

The at-bat doesn’t exactly take on a John Kruk/Randy Johnson feel, but it’s clear Baddoo isn’t terribly comfortable against Diekman now. He stares at a pitch right down the middle, and then offers late at another center-cut offering. Diekman finishes Baddoo off by nailing the outside corner at 94 MPH, and curious bloggers must now determine if there’s an issue.

Akil Baddoo Strikeout Conclusion

Take a look at that nice highlight package above and then prepare for some mixed news. On the positive side, looking at all these strikeouts pretty much confirms Akil Baddoo really does have a good eye. We just looked at 40+ pitches, and Baddoo left the zone all of four times. He knows the zone well, and he laid off a lot of borderline offerings. There also doesn’t appear to be any one particular pattern pitchers have adopted yet. Baddoo has struggled with 2-strike changeups, but pitchers aren’t necessarily going to that consistently.

The biggest concern we see is Akil Baddoo simply missing a lot of hittable pitches. It’s great to have a good eye at the plate, but if pitchers can get you out inside the zone, then that discipline doesn’t help much. What we don’t know is if this is a real concern. It seemed like Baddoo didn’t miss any mistakes during his first week of action, but these last few games he has basically missed them all. We suspect the real Akil Baddoo is probably somewhere in the middle, but only time will tell.