The Detroit Tigers Need an Outfield Reboot

Robbie Grossman:

In 97 plate appearances, Robbie Grossman has produced the odd slash line of a much higher OBP than slugging percentage, contributing a .208/.361/.325  101 OPS+ to the Tigers offense. He walks and walks and walks but that’s about all that can be said for positivity at the plate. He currently has 17 walks and just 5 extra-base hits. He is striking out at a 25.8% clip which is up 6% from 2020 and 8% from the full campaign of 2019. I would ideally like to see him as the 4th outfielder on a real team, but for the 2021 Tigers, he is in no danger of losing his position or playing time. He will keep drawing walks at the top of the lineup and we wait until the improvement comes swinging the stick. Looking at his Statcast Numbers, with his hard hit and sweet spot percentages there is reason to believe his numbers should improve and move closer towards his 2020 production which featured his career-best 130 OPS+.

The Solution: 

He is the only outfielder on the current 26 who isn’t going to see any change in playing time barring an absolute collapse. Grossman is a pro, give him time and he will raise the batting average and slugging percentage. He isn’t a world-beater but for 5 million dollars a year that was never the expectation. He should be an average player by the time it is all said and done this season.

JaCoby Jones:

The last best chance for JaCoby Jones to make a case to stick as a Detroit Tigers has been an abject failure. Before injuries ended his 2019 and 2020 seasons he had appeared to have made real strides at the plate but has managed just .125/.143/.208 in 49 Plate Appearances, featuring just 1 walk and 19 strikeouts. He has an OPS+ of ZERO. Turning 29 next month, it’s time to turn the page. He’s not young enough to be a real part of the future and he is giving absolutely nothing right now. I think he is down to his last weeks to turn it around and it would behoove him to get hot starting right now if he wants any chance at remaining a big-league ballplayer. With his inability to draw walks and his penchant for striking out, it seems unlikely at this point.

The Solution: 

Send him to Triple-A and let Daz Cameron roam the vast expanse of centerfield at Comerica Park. While he did not light the world on fire in his 2020 debut he did look more comfortable once he settled into the big leagues, with 10 hits in his last 30 at-bats after a 1 for 27 start to his career. At 24 years old it is time to start finding out if he is a baseball player or just another guy with an All-Star father.

I wouldn’t wait and would make this move now, but I think the Tigers want to at least give Daz a few Toledo at-bats coming after an off-season elbow injury and a rough go in an abbreviated 2021 Spring Training. Perhaps a hot start could have him in line for a quick call-up, a week or 10 days of showing that he is healthy would be a Mid-May timeline. I think that is a realistic possibility for Al Avila to pull the trigger and send JaCoby back to the bus leagues. I am still rooting for JaCoby but it sure looks like it’s all over barring a quick miracle turnaround.

Victor Reyes:

The chickens have come home to roost and the bubble that seemed like it was going to defy bursting forever has finally popped. Starting off 2021 with a slash line .133/.152/.244 and an OPS+12, and just 1 walk. His BABIP that we knew was unsustainable from the past has come crashing down the season to .156, which would indicate some improvement could be on the horizon from this horrifying start to 2021, but he is back to hitting the ball more softly (30.3 hard-hit %) like his 2019 improbable season (31.6%) than last season’s 41.4%.

Bottom line, he doesn’t walk and hits a lot of weak fly balls, with his groundball rate decreasing (47.1% to 36.4%) but turning into more pop-ups and routine fly balls. He should see some improvement in his performance with continued at-bats but does he deserve the at-bats and is he really going to be a meaningful player?

The Solution:

Put Victor Reyes on the bus to Toledo as soon as Nomar Mazara is ready to return, which is projected to be around May 9th. It is totally reasonable to expect Mazara to give us around league average production, think something along the lines of .250/.300/.450, while hitting 15-20 balls over the fence. If he does more and taps into some of the upsides that once made him a hot prospect with the Texas Rangers so be it, but if not it is still way more than Victor Reyes has to offer. He is at best a 4th outfielder in an organization full of four A outfielders

Akil Baddoo:

Akil Baddoo burst on the scene and created a spark and energy that has sorely lacked since he has cooled off from his hot start. Baddoo is currently at .241/.262/.621 slash line with the last 10 games being .143/.167/.343 after starting at an otherworldly .391/.400/1.043 in his first 8 games. We knew the inevitable cool-off would come but it’s time to face reality. Baddoo has a ton of raw skills but as suspected he is going to be severely overmatched at the major league level and AJ Hinch will need to ride the line of giving him enough at-bats to help his development but to limit his exposure so that his level of play and confidence both don’t end up in the dumpster. With a Strikeout rate now at 42.6% and a walk rate of just 3.3%, he is now quickly resembling a player who only had 29 games at the High A level in 2019 and didn’t play a game in 2020. Still, the skill set is impressive and the upside is apparent.

The Solution:

Being a Rule V selection and having displayed plus potential in all aspects of the game at various points, Akil Baddoo is a keeper at just 22 years of age to see how much he can further develop. He should be used a game or 2 a week as the 4th outfielder, for now, likely followed by some AAA time in 2022 before a return to the majors and hopefully a full-time role if everything plays out well for the young man. He really has a long ways to go and his range of outcomes is anywhere from not going to make it in the big leagues to potential major league regular with the ability to make an impact, but using him wisely while working on his deficiencies in the big leagues is the only course of action for now.

What the outfield reboot could look like:

So when it is all said and done. the end of May seems like the right timeline for the players involved.  If Big Al and the organization may feel is appropriate, I would have a starting outfield of Grossman in LF, Daz Cameron in CF, and Nomar Mazara in RF with Akil Baddoo as the 4th man. Jones and Reyes would be the roster subtractions for Mazara and Cameron.

This would still leave Harold Castro and Niko Goodrum to play the outfield in a pinch or the occasional spot start if necessary. While the rebooted outfield I am suggesting is not going to be confused with Al Kaline, Willie Horton, and Mickey Stanley by any means, it at least should have some improved production from what we are seeing as I expect Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara to at least approach their modest established big league norm. It also allows us to find out if Daz Cameron deserves further serious consideration or if our attention turns fully towards Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and the other outfield prospects at AA or below. There is nothing to lose going with this setup. No sense in continuing to waste time with players like Jones and Reyes who are just not major league players at this point and not likely to offer a whole lot going forward.