2021 Detroit Tigers after 60 games…where do we go from here?

Our old friend Ernie Harwell once called Detroit Tigers closer Todd Jones “The Roller Coaster” for his up and down theatrics that regularly occurred before celebrating Tigers victories, or at times agonizing over tough defeats.

If Ernie were still behind the microphone he may have resurrected the phrase which embodies what we have seen with the 2021 Detroit Tigers through 60 games.

At a record of 25-35, a .417 winning percentage that equates to a 67-68 win pace, here were my preseason thoughts and prediction, but more importantly, where do we go from here?

The Detroit Tigers Starting Pitching after 60 games:

Casey Mize seems to be figuring how the major league level just fine and might just be that top of rotation arm the Tigers so desperately need him to become. Let’s take a look at his monthly splits courtesy of Baseball-Reference. 

In April, Casey Mize had 5 starts with opponents slashing  .267/.351/.485, which led to a 1-3 record with a 5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP,  6.8 K/9, and a BABIP of .289.

Contrast that with May’s 5 starts that featured a huge reduction on the slash line to .162/.252/.238, which led to a 2-0 record with a 1.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, and a BABIP of.195. The magic of adjusting to life in the big leagues and the wizardry of pitching coach Chris Fetter is on full display.

I’m watching to see if Casey can continue to dominate as the weather warms up and move that K/9 closer to the 9 levels. He will likely never be a huge strikeout guy but getting to the 1 per inning level will bode well as he strides further towards his goal of developing into true Ace level material.

Tarik Skubal has made some strides as well, his 11K 4 hit performance in 5 innings against Chicago was a nice preview of things to come, though he does need to cut the walks down in order to make a bigger jump forward. We are holding our breath as we see how long Spencer Turnbull remains out, can Matthew Boyd not fall off the map as we have seen several times before and if Jose Urena can be what he was to start this season and not morph back towards just an innings eater. This will have a large impact on whether we have more than 8-19 months like April or 14-13 months like May.

The elephant in the room is what do the innings limits look like for Skubal and Mize. It is hard to put a number on them as we don’t know have a true innings number from last year from the Toledo practice squad time or any other work that was being done during the downtime of the pandemic to simply add 20 to 30 percent and have at least a reasonable ballpark estimate.

AJ Hinch recently has spoken about giving Skubal a little extra rest already and some bullpen days could be part of the equation going forward to lengthen Mize and Skubal’s seasons but at some point a total shutdown would appear likely.

The rotation then becomes quite questionable. Julio Tehran still isn’t throwing, Matt Manning is struggling in Toledo and will have an innings limit as well, and the only veteran starter down in Toledo throwing real innings to fill the Matt Carpenter role of the past couple of seasons is Drew Hutchinson. Wily Peralta has also started 5 games but has only thrown a total of 16 innings so he is not exactly stretched out yet. Enjoy the rotation now because it’s likely to look quite different and the road to the finish line worse than any Michigan Freeway.

Detroit Tigers outfield after 60 games

We are starting to see some churn through the position players, as we wave goodbye to Jacoby Jones. Victor Reyes has been demoted and brought back and he serves no real purpose. Nomar Mazara and his .183/.248/.288 performance with an ISO of .106 has to be skating on thin ice. When power and Home Runs are your only calling card and you have 2 in 113 PA’s it seems it is time to cut bait and move on.

Expect Daz Cameron to join his pal Derek Hill here in Detroit soon which would give us fans an outfield of Grossman/Hill/Daz with local sensation Eric Haase seeing some time, along with continued judicious use of Akil Baddoo, to watch and enjoy. Reyes or Mazara can stay or go as far as I am concerned because the playing time for the slot should be minimal. I would keep Reyes over Mazara just for the pinch-running aspect.

Behind the plate is dicey as we have seen both the good and the bad of Jake Rogers, gunning down all 4 would-be base stealers, but his bat is still a huge question mark. He is fine for now in the backup spot but he is far away from being an everyday player. Jake Rogers makes the Dillon Dingler watch in West Michigan that much more exciting.

Eric Haase has taken over the main duties with Wilson Ramos on the IL, who was struggling mightily at the plate after a fast start to the season to go with the defense that will certainly not have you mistake him for Pudge Rodriguez. A decision will have to be made at some point when Ramos and Greyson Greiner are ready to return.

It is not a position of strength, but Haase has handled the duties admirably so far as he injects the power at the plate that the team was dire to add. It is certainly in better shape than it was just a month ago.

The infield is just a mess. Miguel Cabrera continues to be more down than up as he tries to dig his way out of a disastrous start to the season. I am as big of a Miggy fan as there is but let’s face facts he is -.8 bWAR at this point in the season and while he flashes some of the old magic, the likelihood of the flickering light staying on decreases as the season progresses. The 2B/SS defense is a disaster with little hope at improvement.

Willi Castro is heating up with the bat as is Jonathon Schoop who is playing some first base, and utility man masquerading as a starting SS Niko Goodrum continues to not really hit nor field the position. Jeimer Candelario is slumping, just when I am about ready to think he is at least an average major league ballplayer.

The OPS is down to .717 in 241 PA’s this season for The Candy Man after flashing an excellent .872 in 206 PA’s this season. American League average OPS is down to .714 so far in 2021 from .733 in 2020 and .762 in 2019 I have seen some calls from fans to try and reach an extension with him, but I think that is premature.

Let’s see how he finishes out this season. So far he is about average, can he flourish, maintain, or sink? All 3 possibilities are reasonable. There is no reason to be in a hurry to lock up league-average players that can be replaced. If he shows more and finishes strong we can revisit that issue. I think the last 4 months of the season are of gigantic importance to his future and how the Tigers shape the 2022 roster and beyond. I love rooting for him and am in his corner.

I don’t really see a lot of changes here moving forward, especially before August 1st, other than Daz coming with Mazara departing and then Reyes hitting the road when Wilson Ramos returns.

Detroit Tigers The Verdict after 60 games:

May was a nice surprise after a horrendous month of April and June has started out just fine with a 3-3 mark. The bats putting up 28 runs despite a shutout by Dylan Cease and a 1 run performance against Lance Lynn, along with Mize and Skubal having strong first starts is very encouraging. I think the Tigers can hold their own and play in the .470-.500 vicinity for the next month or two if injuries can stay out of their way and Spencer Turnbull is not out for too long.

Once the innings limits hit and possibly a subtraction or two at the trade deadline, I think things will turn much bleaker for a final couple of months.

I am sticking at 65-97 for the season, but plenty to focus on and enjoy. Watch the youngsters on the mound while they are out there before their early tee times are upon us.  As far as the position players, the development and results of Jeimer Candelario, Eric Haase, Derek Hill, Daz Cameron when he arrives, Akil Baddoo, and Willi Castro are worthwhile following as we sort out who is in and who is out for 2022 and beyond.

We can at least be thankful there really are many important developments to watch at the major league level now, unlike the past few seasons. The overall picture is still very cloudy, but at least there are some breaks in the clouds and joy to be had this glorious summer.