2021 Detroit Tigers after 60 games…where do we go from here?

Our old friend Ernie Harwell once called Detroit Tigers closer Todd Jones “The Roller Coaster” for his up and down theatrics that regularly occurred before celebrating Tigers victories, or at times agonizing over tough defeats.

If Ernie were still behind the microphone he may have resurrected the phrase which embodies what we have seen with the 2021 Detroit Tigers through 60 games.

At a record of 25-35, a .417 winning percentage that equates to a 67-68 win pace, here were my preseason thoughts and prediction, but more importantly, where do we go from here?

The Detroit Tigers Starting Pitching after 60 games:

Casey Mize seems to be figuring how the major league level just fine and might just be that top of rotation arm the Tigers so desperately need him to become. Let’s take a look at his monthly splits courtesy of Baseball-Reference. 

In April, Casey Mize had 5 starts with opponents slashing  .267/.351/.485, which led to a 1-3 record with a 5.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP,  6.8 K/9, and a BABIP of .289.

Contrast that with May’s 5 starts that featured a huge reduction on the slash line to .162/.252/.238, which led to a 2-0 record with a 1.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, and a BABIP of.195. The magic of adjusting to life in the big leagues and the wizardry of pitching coach Chris Fetter is on full display.

I’m watching to see if Casey can continue to dominate as the weather warms up and move that K/9 closer to the 9 levels. He will likely never be a huge strikeout guy but getting to the 1 per inning level will bode well as he strides further towards his goal of developing into true Ace level material.

Tarik Skubal has made some strides as well, his 11K 4 hit performance in 5 innings against Chicago was a nice preview of things to come, though he does need to cut the walks down in order to make a bigger jump forward. We are holding our breath as we see how long Spencer Turnbull remains out, can Matthew Boyd not fall off the map as we have seen several times before and if Jose Urena can be what he was to start this season and not morph back towards just an innings eater. This will have a large impact on whether we have more than 8-19 months like April or 14-13 months like May.

The elephant in the room is what do the innings limits look like for Skubal and Mize. It is hard to put a number on them as we don’t know have a true innings number from last year from the Toledo practice squad time or any other work that was being done during the downtime of the pandemic to simply add 20 to 30 percent and have at least a reasonable ballpark estimate.

AJ Hinch recently has spoken about giving Skubal a little extra rest already and some bullpen days could be part of the equation going forward to lengthen Mize and Skubal’s seasons but at some point a total shutdown would appear likely.

The rotation then becomes quite questionable. Julio Tehran still isn’t throwing, Matt Manning is struggling in Toledo and will have an innings limit as well, and the only veteran starter down in Toledo throwing real innings to fill the Matt Carpenter role of the past couple of seasons is Drew Hutchinson. Wily Peralta has also started 5 games but has only thrown a total of 16 innings so he is not exactly stretched out yet. Enjoy the rotation now because it’s likely to look quite different and the road to the finish line worse than any Michigan Freeway.

The Detroit Tigers Bullpen after 60 games:

The bullpen is currently comprised of Jose Cisnero, Jason Foley, Kyle Funkhouser, Bryan Garcia, Rony Garcia, Derek Holland, Joe Jimenez, Daniel Norris, Tyler Alexander, and Gregory Soto, along with Michael Fulmer on the IL for an unknown amount of time, but not thought to be serious. Fatigue always worries me, especially June with an injury-filled history for the player. The unit had a rough start to the season along with the rest of the team but it has settled down.

Kyle Funkhouser has been a pleasant surprise in his 15.2 innings across 12 appearances, featuring a 2.87 ERA and 13K’s to go along with a 1.02 WHIP. Jose Cisnero seems to be settling into the closer’s role, with Gregory Soto also playing a part in the back end of the bullpen. Jason Foley is the newcomer and he features 98+ with the fastball but it still looks too straight to me for him to find major league success. I need to see more of Foley and am withholding final judgment but I’m watching him through squinted eyes.

Joe Jimenez, Bryan Garcia, and Derek Holland can not be trusted, though Holland was better in his few appearances in May and first showing in June before a rough outing on June 5th in Chicago. He will need to be watched closely but these are 3 spots that the Tigers can churn as they see fit and continue to try out other arms in the organization.

Relievers on the 40 man in Toledo that could see some time include Beau Burrows, who is struggling and appears to behave pitched himself out of future plans, Alex Lange who started out strong in Detroit before hitting the skids and has not been any better in Toledo, and Erasmo Ramirez who was called up and placed on the 10 day IL before making an appearance. It is easy to see why Al Avila opted to place Jason Foley on the 40 man roster for his latest bullpen move, the roster is barren.

Some other possible additions going forward from Toledo that would cause 40 man roster casualties are Ian Krol, Locke St. John, Drew Carlton, or maybe even the return of Buck Farmer should he right the ship. The bullpen’s best days may have been the month of May and it’s easy to see it sliding down as the season takes its toll on the existing arms and the depth is challenged.

Detroit Tigers The Verdict after 60 games:

May was a nice surprise after a horrendous month of April and June has started out just fine with a 3-3 mark. The bats putting up 28 runs despite a shutout by Dylan Cease and a 1 run performance against Lance Lynn, along with Mize and Skubal having strong first starts is very encouraging. I think the Tigers can hold their own and play in the .470-.500 vicinity for the next month or two if injuries can stay out of their way and Spencer Turnbull is not out for too long.

Once the innings limits hit and possibly a subtraction or two at the trade deadline, I think things will turn much bleaker for a final couple of months.

I am sticking at 65-97 for the season, but plenty to focus on and enjoy. Watch the youngsters on the mound while they are out there before their early tee times are upon us.  As far as the position players, the development and results of Jeimer Candelario, Eric Haase, Derek Hill, Daz Cameron when he arrives, Akil Baddoo, and Willi Castro are worthwhile following as we sort out who is in and who is out for 2022 and beyond.

We can at least be thankful there really are many important developments to watch at the major league level now, unlike the past few seasons. The overall picture is still very cloudy, but at least there are some breaks in the clouds and joy to be had this glorious summer.