Detroit Tigers: Three things to watch for on Matt Manning’s debut

What is Matt Manning’s velocity, how long does he hold it for, and do the nerves take over

Detroit Tigers starter Matt Manning was felt by many to be a low-mileage arm with significant projection with his velocity when he was drafted. At the time, Manning was a high school pitcher who had taken to pitching later in high school. This raised the intrigue for many teams but it also raised the risk.

Fast forward five seasons and Manning has shown more of the mid-’90s than the upper-90’s perhaps evaluators and analysts would have hoped would come along. Still, he does show the ability to scrape 97 with his four-seamer.

During my looks, velocity was inconsistent. In my first look, he was 91-92 in the first inning before finding and maintaining 93-95 through the remainder of the start and finding a little extra when necessary. More recently, he was mostly 92-94 with his fastball except for the fifth inning, where he randomly went 95-97 before bumping it back down through the rest of the game.

Of course, throwing harder is typically better, but the upper band of his velocity appears to compliment his other pitches too, considering it widens the gap in velocity between them. Considering his inconsistencies with the offering in Toledo as well as the adrenaline that comes with making your major league debut, fastball velocity will be a fascinating watch on Thursday.

How the Detroit Tigers choose to deploy Matt Manning’s curveball

Matt Manning’s curveball is what gets scouts’ attention. It’s a big hook in the 79-81 velocity band that yielded swings and misses all night in my second viewing against the Columbus Clippers in Toledo.

I was equally impressed by the pitch (as I notated in my live looks piece for Prospects Live), but it wasn’t quite as consistent as I expected it to be. While there was a fair share of sharp, tight-rotating benders, there was also the mix of get-me-over strikes and guided offerings that ended up in the dirt.

I expect Manning to lean heavily on his curveball to navigate an Angels lineup with some thump, especially when he is ahead in the count. It will take some time for Manning, certainly, but consistency with his best pitch will be paramount to pitch deep into the night hours.

As an aside, I would be fascinated and surprised if Manning can work his fastball with his curveball and leverage the fastball up in the zone. With a big curve like his, I could see him getting some swings and misses with high heat if he tunnels the offering correctly (although he traditionally works east-to-west with the fastball).

How often Matt Manning and the Detroit Tigers go to the changeup

One scout turned to me after a groundball double play on an 86 mph pitch and just asked, ‘What was that?’ It wasn’t a dig on Manning, but it was a struggle and a theme that continued into his second start that evaluators were trying to figure out. The verdict? A changeup.

It’s odd considering his rumored experiment with a slider as well as the movement profile and how Manning chooses to deploy it. Not to mention, it lacks the consistent desired velocity necessary to keep hitters off of his fastball. It would almost make more sense if it was a slider or a cutter at 88-90.

A different scout at the game mentioned he has a habit of breaking his wrist with it, which causes the offering to run in on left-handed bats. Righties throwing offspeed inside to lefties is generally thought of as a hard no-no, so the deployment of the offering is suspect assuming he intended to locate where he did.

The wrist break is fascinating to me. Could this be because of his experiment with the other breaking ball during the offseason? Pitchers typically need to pronate when throwing the change, but Manning may supinate at times, meaning the wrist breaks on the outside of the ball instead of the inside. Specifically watching how and if Manning deploys the changeup to left-handed hitters on Thursday night will be a fascinating watch.

Lastly–I cannot wait to see how Manning’s stuff translates to the big leagues after some inconsistent performances at the minor league level. I believe most who have watched Manning believe that he wasn’t quite ready in normal circumstances, but I’d be ecstatic if Manning remains in the rotation for the Detroit Tigers for the rest of the season.