Detroit Tigers Trade Rumors: Jeimer Candelario being targeted
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Detroit Tigers continue to play solid baseball since early May, and corner infielder Jeimer Candelario has been one of their most consistently productive players.
Over the past calendar year Jeimer Candelario has produced 3.2 fWAR, which ranks 54th out of 122 qualified position players. If you’re curious, Fernando Tatis Jr. leads baseball with 7.3 fWAR in that time, while Miguel Cabrera ranks last at -0.6.
So Jeimer Candelario appears to be a slightly above-average player, he doesn’t turn 28 until November, and he’s not a free agent until after the 2023 season. Why would the Detroit Tigers want to trade him?
So far there’s no indication they actually want to. But, according to Cody Stavenhagen at The Athletic ($), the Tigers have taken calls from other teams expressing interest in Candelario.
The Detroit Tigers are in a bit of a tricky area with Candelario. He’s one of just a few solid offensive players on their team, and he’s young enough to be a piece of a future contender. But he’s also not the sort of traditional thumper teams want from their corner infielders, and the club has decent depth at his position.
Jeimer Candelario probably won’t be traded. But it behooves the Tigers to at least listen to offers, and that means we should try to guess what the club could get for him.
Jeimer Candelario’s Value
We have a couple of very recent real-world trades to use as a guide for Jemier Candelario’s actual trade value, but I always like to nerd it up with a bit of math first. Let’s play the feud!
WAR numbers based on ZiPS. Dollar values are estimates.
That’s a pretty solid amount of surplus value. FanGraphs considers it consistent with the value of the top rung of 50FV prospects. Prospects who project as average big leaguers, essentially.
But it’s increasingly rare for teams to trade that caliber of prospect, particularly when they are dealing for average big leaguers like Candelario. Adam Frazier brought back a 40FV prospect and two 35+FV prospects, while Cesar Hernandez landed Cleveland a single 40FV prospect.
Jeimer Candelario is a more well-rounded player than either Frazier or Hernandez, but he’s not having as loud of a season as either of them. So what kind of return could the Detroit Tigers expect in a trade? Hit the jump to see our best guesses.
Jeimer Candelario Trade Destination Number 1: Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are back to being legitimate World Series contenders, but they aren’t without their weaknesses. Their starting rotation is a bit light, though they should be helped by the return of Chris Sale, and they rank dead last in baseball in terms of WAR from first basemen, with a walk rate under 5% and a strikeout rate approaching 35%. Their top prospect, Triston Casas, is holding his own in Double A, but he’s not quite ready to make an impact in the middle of a pennant race. Enter Jeimer Candelario, a switch-hitter with patience and strong numbers at Fenway Park (albeit in just 9 games). Candelario could handle first base this year and next, and he could probably slide over to second base once Casas arrives.
Bryan Bello is one of Boston’s fastest rising prospects this season. He posted a 2.27 ERA over six starts in High-A and owns a 4.50 ERA though eight Double-A starts, though his strikeout rate his risen with the jump in competition. He’s striking out 36% of the batters he has faced this year, and he appeared in the Futures Game earlier this month. Bello’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98, and both his slider and changeup flash as plus pitches, but the changeup is more consistent. He has a chance to be a #4 starter if everything clicks, but he also carries a fair amount of relief risk. Gilberto Jimenez is a switch-hitting outfielder in the mold of Derek Hill, with plus-plus speed and the chance to be an impact defender in center, but his aggressive approach and lack of power could prevent him from becoming an everyday player.
Jeimer Candelario Trade Destination Number 2: New York Yankees
Let’s get a little creative here. The New York Yankees just made a big trade to land Joey Gallo, but they’re up against the luxury tax threshold, so they upped their prospect package to get the Rangers to eat all of Gallo’s salary for the rest of the season. The Detroit Tigers are in good financial shape, and Al Avila said they could even look to add players. The Yankees have been just average at first base and third base this season, they’ve been well below-average against right-handed pitching, and contenders can always use relief help.
Jeimer Candelario is a New York native who can ably fill in at either corner spot and gives the Bronx Bombers another solid lefty bat with patience. Cisnero is a quality reliever who can work the late innings and is under team control for multiple years. Britton has been an excellent reliever for New York in the past, but he’s been injured for most of the season and wild when he has pitched, and he’s expensive. The Tigers could eat the rest of his $13 million salary this year, and afford to pay him the $14 million he’s owed next year, potentially paving the way for the Yankees to make a run at one of the big free agent shortstops. Which brings us to Detroit’s prospect return.
The New York Yankees have two impressive young shortstop prospects in Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. Teams don’t usually trade prospects like that, but you can only play one shortstop at a time, and the Yankees have never been shy about filling needs via free agency. Peraza is a strong defender at shortstop, with plus speed and burgeoning power, and he has a chance to be average or better at the big-league level. Britton could help manage innings for the rest of 2021, and there’s an outside chance get could recover and be a decent trade chip for the Tigers in 2022.
Jeimer Candelario Trade Destination Number 3: Toronto Blue Jays
Was that last trade a bit too much for you? Maybe this one will feel a bit more realistic. The Toronto Blue Jays have 3/4 of a spectacular infield right now. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads all first basemen (and all hitters period) with 5.1 WAR. Marcus Semien tops all second basemen with 4.3 WAR, and Bo Bichette is in the top five among shortstops. But Toronto’s third basemen aren’t pulling their weight. Santiago Espinal makes tons of contact, but doesn’t do much damage and he rarely walks, while Cavan Biggio walks plenty but doesn’t make enough contact. Jeimer Candelario would settle in nicely at third base and lengthen Toronto’s bench by allowing them to mix and match with Espinal and Biggio. The Blue Jays added to their bullpen by trading for Brad Hand, but they still need more help, and Jose Cisnero would be an instant upgrade.
This one is pretty close to our fake Robbie Grossman trade from last week, but Candelario is more valuable than Grossman, so we added a couple more bodies to this deal. The idea remains the same, though. Toronto’s farm system is absolutely flush with infielders, and we’ve already discussed their terrific big-league core. Kevin Smith is having an outstanding season in Triple-A, batting .293 with 18 home runs, 13 steals, and career best strikeout and walk rates. Hiraldo is a 20-year-old holding his own in Low-A ball with a chance for above-average hit and power tools at maturity, while Taylor is 23-year-old utility type having a power spike in Double-A, and Hernandez is a reliever with a good changeup and terrific strikeout rates in the low minors. There’s no sure bet in this group for the Tigers, but Smith and Hiraldo have interesting upside, and these are the sort of quantity-over-quality deal teams seem to be making these days.