Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects: Midseason Update

The baseball season has a funny way of feeling both fleeting and interminable. It seems like we published our list of the top 20 Detroit Tigers prospects yesterday (it was actually five months ago), but it also feels like 10 million things have happened since.

We made that list by averaging the top 20 rankings of five MCB contributors, and to give you an idea of how long ago that was, none of us included Akil Baddoo in our rankings, and all five of us ranked Franklin Perez.

A handful of our top prospects have graduated and become fixtures on the big-league club, and the Detroit Tigers have completed another full draft and trade deadline. So it feels like it’s time for a prospect update.

This time we had six MCB contributors put together their top-25 Detroit Tigers prospect lists, and the average ranking now makes up our top-20 prospect update. We’ll also talk a bit about prospects who graduated, new prospects on the lists, and prospects who rose and fell.

If you only care to see the list, then feel free to skip to the end of the slideshow.

Detroit Tigers Prospects Who Graduated

Number 14 – C – Jake Rogers

At the time of our last list Jake Rogers’ future was still very much in doubt. He had a rough MLB debut in 2019, and was left to stew in Toledo for all of the 2020 season. But he came up this season and provided exactly what the Detroit Tigers had always hoped — plus defense behind the plate and enough power to be a threat in the lineup. He suffered an unfortunate injury a few weeks ago, but he’s a part of the future of this franchise again, even if he tops out as a backup.

Number 6 – IF – Isaac Paredes

The future of Isaac Paredes is still very much up in the air. He wasn’t terribly effective in his MLB debut last year, and this season he has dealt with injuries, scattered playing time, and defensive question marks. He’s no longer a prospect, but we don’t know if he’s a part of the future either. The next two months will be very important for him.

Number 4 – RHP – Casey Mize

It’s a bit hard to remember now, but back in spring training Casey Mize looked bad. And he wasn’t all that impressive in his 2020 MLB debut, either. Now he looks very much like the player the Detroit Tigers hoped he would be when they drafted him first overall in 2018. He’s not a dominant force at the top of the rotation, but there’s still plenty of time for him to get better. And even if he doesn’t, Detroit appears to have a very solid mid-rotation starter.

Number 3 – LHP – Tarik Skubal

While Casey Mize has been steady in a way we don’t typically see from young starters, Tarik Skubal has followed the more familiar path of a young power pitchers: inconsistency. We still believe Skubal has a higher ceiling than Mize thanks to his occasional dominant outing, but he’ll need to figure out how to limit home runs in order to reach his full potential.

Detroit Tigers Prospect Newcomers

This slide doesn’t offer a ton of surprises. The Detroit Tigers added four players from the MLB Draft and one at the trade deadline who we felt were worthy of inclusion on the updated list.

Number 13 – RHP – Dylan Smith

There were brief rumblings about Dylan Smith wanting more money than the Tigers had left to spend, but in the end Detroit was able to ink their 3rd-round pick for $1.15 million — roughly $270K more than the slot recommendation. Smith had a solid junior season at Alabama, and he’s an athletic pitcher with a starter’s arsenal, limited miles on his arm, and some room for growth.

Number 12 – RHP – Reese Olson

Detroit’s lone move at the trade deadline was acquiring Reese Olson from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Daniel Norris. Olson has pretty impressive stuff, with four distinct offerings that all flash as above-average or even plus pitches. He’s been working as a starter, and the Tigers may continue to use him as such, but Olson’s effortful, trebuchet-like delivery and lack of pinpoint command suggest a future in the bullpen.

Number 10 – IF – Izaac Pacheco

The top position player drafted by the Detroit Tigers this year, Izaac Pacheco is technically a shortstop right now, but he’s such a large young man that, despite some surprising athleticism, practically everyone expects him to move to third base in the future. But the Tigers didn’t select him for his glove, they took him for his bat, which offered some of the best power potential in the entire draft.

Number 6 – RHP – Ty Madden

Ty Madden was one of the most consistent and effective starters in college baseball this year, but he slid in the draft, apparently due to concerns about how his fastball would play in pro ball. The MCB crew had no such concerns — in fact all six of us independently ranked him sixth on our lists — and we think there’s still mid-rotation upside here, with a reasonable fallback option as a Kyle Funkhouser-style reliever.

Number 5 – RHP – Jackson Jobe

Despite going 3rd overall in the 2021 draft and earning some frankly hard-to-believe grades for his stuff, Jackson Jobe slides in at “just” fifth on our list. He should throw a few innings this year, and as such he could climb the ranks fairly quickly, but for now we remain a bit cautious because of the troubling history of high-school pitchers…something about which we’ll write more soon.

Detroit Tigers Prospects Who Rose

Andre Lipcius – IF – Off the list to 20

There may not be a more unassuming prospect in the Detroit Tigers system than Andre Lipcius. There isn’t anything particularly flashy about his game, and he may not have a single above-average tool, but Lipcius is a patient hitter who puts together consistent at-bats and has enough power to punish mistakes. He’s also very reliable on defense, regardless of which infield position he’s asked to handle.

Cristian Santana – IF – Off the list to 18

The Detroit Tigers’ top international signing from the 2020 class (though not signed until January 2021), Christian Santana has already found his way near the top of many Tigers prospect lists. We’re a bit more cautious with kids who haven’t played in the United States yet, but Santana is performing pretty well early in the Dominican Summer League season.

Ryan Kreidler – IF – Off the list to 17

Detroit’s 4th rounder in 2019, Ryan Kreidler was a bit of a surprise addition to spring training camp this year. And then he was a somewhat surprising addition to the alternate training site. And then he earned a surprising assignment to Double-A Erie. At some point it’s on us to stop being surprised. Kreidler has played shortstop and batted in the #2 hole in Erie’s lineup all year, and he has handled the jump in competition fairly well. His high strikeout rate is a concern, but he’s batting .250 with 13 home runs, and he has a chance to carve out a role as a utility infielder at the MLB level.

Dillon Dingler – C – Up 5

Dillon Dingler isn’t the biggest riser on our board, but his climb is probably the most important for the overall health of the system. Detroit’s 2nd rounder in 2020 was regarded by many as a first-round talent, but it was hard to rank him higher than we did with such a limited track record. He wasted little time proving his ability on both sides of the ball, and quickly earned a promotion to Double-A Erie. His bat has cooled considerably with the SeaWolves, but the talent is still there, and he’s still showing the potential to be a plus defender behind the plate.

Roberto Campos – OF – Up 6

Ranking Roberto Campos on any prospect list before this season was an exercise in faith, as few people outside of the Detroit Tigers organization had ever seen him play.  But he finally took the field this year, hit a home run in his first pro at-bat, and earned some impressive reviews from evaluators. His stats don’t jump off the page, but the tools certainly seem to be here.

Gage Workman – IF – Up 7

You may notice a pattern in our final few risers. Gage Workman was another 2020 draftee who had yet to play in pro ball, so we hedged our bets a bit. He showed above-average offensive ability while playing a passable shortstop in Low-A Lakeland, and he recently earned a promotion to High-A West Michigan. He is struggling mightily with the Whitecaps right now, so the rise up the ranks may not stick, but he’s still showing the raw tools to justify a lofty ranking.

Colt Keith – IF – Up 10

The run of 2020 draft picks concludes with Colt Keith, Detroit’s 5th rounder from last year. Keith hasn’t played much, and he’s currently on the Injured List, but he has performed well for his age while showing impressive tools and an advanced feel for the game. He’s one of the most exciting prospects in the system.

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects: Midseason Update

There’s no change at the top for us. Riley Greene has been one of the youngest and best players in Double-A all season, and he is providing value in all phases of the game. We think he has the best shot in the system to be an above-average MLB regular.

Spencer Torkelson remains a close second behind Greene. After a slow start to his pro career, Tork has largely done what was expected of him, batting .278/.401/.552 through his first 70 pro games. Any visions of Torkelson becoming a Miguel Cabrera-like MVP are a bit much, but we think he has a good chance to become an above-average corner infielder in the bigs.

It didn’t take Dillon Dingler long to prove he was a legitimate prospect. He has struggled over the last month in Erie, but his defense behind the plate gives him a high floor, and he flashes the offensive potential to be an All-Star one day.

Matt Manning has been a bit mystifying this year. His results have been mostly fine, and he’s still young enough to improve, but he hasn’t shown the slightest hint of dominance. In fact, Manning’s raw pitch data makes him look a lot more like another Mike Pelfrey than the sort of front-line arm many hoped he could be. That’s still valuable, of course, but it feels disappointing.

Jackson Jobe was generally considered one of the top ten players available in the 2021 MLB Draft, and the Detroit Tigers used the 3rd overall pick on him. By all accounts he has everything it takes to be a top-of-the-rotation starter some day.

It’s back-to-back 2021 draft picks here as Ty Madden slots in at number 6. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Jobe, but Madden still has an outstanding arm, and he’s less risky than Jobe simply by virtue of coming from the college ranks.

Joey Wentz has returned from his Tommy John surgery this season, and his arm seems to be healthy. His fastball has been up to 95 MPH this year, which is a good sign, and his 4.10 ERA is solid. But, like so many pitchers who return from elbow surgery, he’s still working on regaining his command and control (29BB in 45IP).

As mentioned on the risers page, Colt Keith has vaulted up our rankings. His numbers are strong, particularly for a teenager in full-season ball (though he turns 20 in two weeks), but the scouting reports are just as good. He looks like the real deal.

Spencer Torkelson’s college teammate moves into our top 10 on the strength of a solid performance in Low-A Lakeland to begin his pro career. He has found the sledding much tougher in High-A, but we’ll give him time to adjust.

Izaac Pacheco comes out of the draft and hops right into the 10th spot thanks to his power potential and ability to play on the dirt. He went 1-for-2 with a walk in his professional debut last week.

Daz Cameron drops two spots in our rankings, but that has more to do with the new names arriving than anything he’s done as a player. Cameron has flashed his power, speed, and defense at the big-league level, and may still offer everyday regular upside if he can stay healthy.

Reese Olson is reminiscent of Detroit Tigers reliever Alex Lange in that he came to the team in a minor deadline deal and he’s a current starter who probably fits best in the bullpen. Olson’s arsenal is a bit broader than Lange’s, though, and we think his ceiling is slightly higher, too.

An enigma before the season, Roberto Campos has finally started playing this year, and he’s showing signs of why the Tigers were happy to give him nearly $3 million in 2019. He’s still very raw, and there’s a long way to go, but the tools are pretty loud.

The last of the 2021 draft picks to make the list, Dylan Smith offers more upside than a typical 3rd-round college arm. He started for just one year at Alabama, showing four quality pitches against the top competition college has to offer, and there’s still room on his frame to get stronger and throw harder.

Daniel Cabrera slides down our list because he’s looking more like a potential 4th outfielder than a regular. He’s still flashing his average tools on a regular basis, but the hitting isn’t where it needs to be.

There’s not a whole lot to discuss about Alex Faedo, as he’s been out for the whole season with Tommy John surgery. When healthy he shows some backend starter potential, though we think it’s more likely he develops into a slider-heavy reliever in the mold of Alex Wilson.

Ryan Kreidler has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the system this year, though he’s certainly not without his warts. He’s playing a solid shortstop for Erie and his power production has been welcome, but he needs to cut down on his strikeouts to have success at higher levels.

There’s precious little game action to evaluate for Cristian Santana, though he does have some home runs early in the Dominican Summer League season. This ranking is still largely based on evaluations of him prior to beginning pro ball.

Parker Meadows remains an impressive physical specimen, but his on-field work leaves a lot to be desired. He’ll still flash big-league tools at times, but his hitting just hasn’t progressed the way it needs to.

Andre Lipcius is a solid, well-rounded infielder who quickly hit his way from West Michigan to Erie. Neither his tools nor his stats jump out, but he’s the sort of quality baseball player who does all the right things on the field and carves out a lengthy career.