Detroit Tigers Free Agents: 5 ways to spend $50 million

Detroit Tigers Free Agency Option 1: Starling Marte and Trevor Story

The Detroit Tigers need help all over the field, but it’s no secret shortstop and center field are two of their biggest weak spots. They currently rank 26th in WAR from center fielders, and 28th in WAR from shortstops, according to FanGraphs. A.J. Hinch likes to put pressure on opposing defenses, and in Trevor Story and Starling Marte the Tigers would be landing two of the more dynamic power/speed threats in the game. They are two of just four players with at least 60 home runs and 80 steals over the last four seasons, joining José Ramírez and Trea Turner.

Trevor Story has had a bit of a down year offensively, though perhaps that’s understandable given the general chaos surrounding the Colorado Rockies. His underlying data still looks solid, though, and he ranks 3rd among all shortstops in defensive runs saved over the past four seasons. It’s possible Story can be signed for less than $30 million a year, given his down year, a strong crop of shortstops, and general uneasiness about Coors Field performance. But Manny Machado and Francisco Lindor set the shortstop market at 10-years, $300 million, so Story’s agent will certainly push for something similar.

Starling Marte presents a different challenge. He’ll be 33 soon, he’s in the midst of a career year, and he’s easily the top option among free agent center fielders. His power production is down a bit, but he’s demonstrating heretofore unseen lead-off skills, with a career-low swing rate leading to a career-high walk rate, and outstanding success on the basepaths, with 45 steals in 50 tries. The most similar recent free agent is probably Lorenzo Cain, who signed a five-year, $80-million deal with the Brewers prior to his age-32 season, so Marte’s agent will likely push for more than that.

Detroit Tigers Free Agency Option 2: Marcus Semien and Eduardo Rodriguez

Okay, so this proposal costs the same as the last one, but it lacks the pizazz of the shortstop/center field combo. Marcus Semien’s name doesn’t seem to come up much when people discuss potentially huge free agent deals, but it really should. He hits for power, he has speed, and he’s a terrific defender.

Semien just set the record for most home runs in a season by a second baseman, and he joins Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders in MLB history with at least 44 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the same season. He grades out very well on defense at second base, and he graded out as an above-average defender at shortstop as recently as 2019. He’s had an MVP-level 2021 season, and he’s been a top-five player by WAR over the last four seasons. He deserves to get paid.

Semien doesn’t get talked about enough, but it seems Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t get talked about at all. Boston originally acquired the talented southpaw from Baltimore in a 2014 deadline deal for Andrew Miller (reportedly sniping the Tigers in the process), and he spent the next few years as solid-average starting pitcher. Things started coming together for him in 2018, and in 2019 he finished 6th in the AL Cy Young vote after going 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 203.1 innings.

Rodriguez missed all of 2020 with a scary heart issue, but he has come back strong this year, though his surface stats might not show it. Rodriguez’s ERA has ballooned to 4.93 this season, but his strikeoute rate has risen, his walk rate has dropped, and his home run rate has remained stable. He has been hurt by Boston’s iffy team defense and some pretty rotten batted ball luck (.365 BABIP), but his expected ERA of 3.64 is right in line with his 2019 numbers, and his 3.35 FIP is the best of his career. Eduardo Rodriguez isn’t an ace, but he’s still just 28, and he has good stuff and a solid track record.

Detroit Tigers Free Agency Option 3: Marcus Stroman, Chris Taylor, and Mark Canha

Marcus Stroman is the headliner here, but this class is mostly about positional flexibility. As an undersized pitcher without truly electric stuff, Stroman has been defying the odds even since college. He’s not a true ace, but few pitchers have been more consistent and reliable over the last six years. He did miss part of 2018 with shoulder woes, and a torn calf muscle kept him out in 2020, but in every other season his numbers are like clockwork: 180+ innings, low walks and homers, lots of ground balls, an ERA in the mid-3s, and a WAR of 3-4. He’s still just 30, and he could be a perfect veteran presence for Detroit’s young rotation.

Chris Taylor and Mark Canha, meanwhile, don’t necessarily fit any specific needs for Detroit. But A.J. Hinch is one of the best managers in baseball when it comes to mixing and matching his lineups to put players in the best position to succeed. They both offer solid power, speed, and on-base production, and tremendous defensive versatility. Taylor has played more than 250 games at shortstop, another 120 at second base, and nearly 200 apiece in center field and left field. He might not excel at any one of those positions, but his ability to move around could help Hinch keep young players like Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene, and Ryan Kreidler in favorable matchups.

Mark Canha is, in some ways, a more versatile version of Robbie Grossman. Over the past three seasons he has batted .250 with a 13.3% walk rate, a 21.1% strikeout rate, 48 home runs, and 19 steals, good for a wRC+ of 129. He fits best in an outfield corner, but in the last three years he has also seen more than 80 starts in center field, and another 20 or so at first base. All that adds up to an fWAR of 8.6, which is roughly the same a Kris Bryant over the same time period.

Detroit Tigers Free Agency Option 4: Javier Báez, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz

Our last proposal featured one current New York Mets player, but why stop there? Let’s get a whole mess of Mets! Now, it’s easy (and enjoyable) to laugh at the seemingly non-stop circus that is the New York Mets. They’ve dealt with serious front-office issues, a loudmouth owner who loves to pop off on Twitter, and a never-ending string of injuries, some of which are almost too comical to believe. But the New York Mets have not lacked talent, and pulling players out of that vortex might be a good way to get some deals.

Javier Báez is undoubtedly the riskiest player of this year’s bumper crop of middle infielders. He is coming off a brutal 2020 season, his strikeout and walk rates are frightening, and he might not always be the best clubhouse presence. But few players possess the natural talent of Báez. He’s a middle infielder capable of hitting 30+ home runs, stealing 20+ bases, and playing above-average defense at either second base or shortstop. He might not be the best long-term investment, but on a shorter deal at a higher AAV, he might be worth the risk.

There’s not a ton of mystery surrounding Michael Conforto. He’s a left-handed hitter with above-average power and patience, good hitting ability, and defensive limitations. Conforto had a chance to be one of the premier power bats available this offseason, but he’s had a very rough season, with his lowest wRC+ (102) since his second year in the league. Injuries have taken a toll on Conforto, but he’s still just 28, and from 2017-2019 he hit .257/.363/.492 with close to 30 home runs a season.

Steven Matz is not currently on the Mets, but he was drafted by them in 2009 and spent 11 injury-riddled years in their system. He was traded away from the team in January and, surprise, he has gone on to have the best year of his career. There’s nothing terribly sexy about Matz, but he’s a lefty with above-average velocity on his sinker and a pretty good changeup. His spotty track record will probably keep him from getting a big, long-term deal, but he could be a solid mid-rotation arm for the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Free Agency Option 5: Carlos Correa and Justin Verlander

Fine, we’ll give the fans what they want. Never mind that fan opinions aren’t always the best, or that Carlos Correa has played more than 110 games in a season just twice in his career, or that there’s zero track record of 39-year-olds returning from Tommy John surgery. Let’s reunite A.J. Hinch with two key cogs from his 2017 World Series team. If nothing else, it’ll sell tickets.

Carlos Correa just turned 27, and he’s in the midst of the best season of his career. He’s batting .277/.363/.475 with 24 home runs and outstanding defensive numbers at shortstop. Remember that first proposal, when we mentioned Trevor Story ranks 3rd among all shortstops in defensive runs saved over the past four seasons? Well, Carlos Correa ranks 2nd (in 925 fewer innings), and all his underlying data (save for sprint speed) is terrific. Correa also happens to be one of the greatest performers in postseason history, with a .270/.338/.531 batting line and 17 home runs in 63 games. He is going to get a tremendous amount of money.

Detroit Tigers fans don’t really need an introduction to Justin Verlander. He’s probably the best pitcher in franchise history, and he’s a surefire Hall-of-Famer who has earned practically every accolade possible. But time comes for everyone, and Verlander’s arm finally gave out last year.

It’s dangeous to sign any pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, but inking a 39-year-old recovering from TJ is off-the-charts risky. There isn’t much data to suggest Verlander can return to form, but that’s mostly because pitchers his age tend to just retire.

But Justin Verlander is built differently than most pitchers, and he seems inclined to pitch into his mid-40s if possible, so someone is likely to sign him. And the Tigers certainly wouldn’t ink this deal on blind faith. Verlander will probably have a showcase or two before signing, and if he looks good, then sure, why not give him a deal? The fans will rejoice, and even if he doesn’t fully return to form, he can at least help mentor the young pitching staff.

So there you have it, five wild proposals to make the Detroit Tigers better. What would you do? Leave us your ideas in the comments section below.