Comparing Javier Báez to other Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers came into this offseason with huge question mark at shortstop, and early Tuesday morning they found their answer in the form of Javier Báez.

It was just the latest big signing in what has been one of the most frenzied weeks of player movement in recent memory; the impending lockout like an enticing sack of blood in shark-filled water.

Teams like the Mets and Rangers brazenly strode into the roiling froth and then emerged, cartoonishly denuded, but seemingly stronger and more dynamic. For a time it appeared the Tigers were content to stand ashore and watch.

But whispers started circulating Monday afternoon, and then overnight Jon Morosi tweeted a deal was close. It took another five hours for more information to come, but then Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the deal was complete:

And so it’s done. The Detroit Tigers and Javier Báez are a match for at least two years, and possibly six.

Readers can learn more about Javier Báez in a speculative trade piece we wrote last year, or the free agent preview we wrote three weeks ago, but what Detroit Tigers fans really need to know about Báez is that he’s absolutely unique as a player.

There are few players in MLB history who are capable of being as simultaneously exciting and frustrating as Javier Báez.

And there certainly aren’t any Detroit Tigers players who work as a direct comparison to him. But, if we break down Javier Báez into his separate tools, we can come up with some pretty good comparisons in recent Detroit Tigers players.

So let’s do it! Starting with the most worrisome aspect of his game: Hitting.

Detroit Tigers Javier Báez Hitting Comp: Jonathan Schoop

We could probably write a full article just on the adventure that is Javier Báez at the plate. He combines the elite bat speed of Gary Sheffield, the aggressive approach of Nick Castellanos, and the rock-bottom contact rates of second-Tigers-stint Alex Avila.

And yet, Báez owns a completely reasonable lifetime batting average of .264. Those numbers look even better if you pull out his rough rookie season (.169 in 213 AB), and his horrific 2020 pandemic year (.202 in 222 AB).

Yes, everyone has better stats if you just remove the bad ones, but that’s not the point here.

Javier Báez is absolutely the sort of player who will struggle to bat .200 for 60 games at a time. That’s not ideal. But he’s also the kind of player who will hit .320 over a two-month span. Last year he posted a .326/.381/.555 line for a 60-game span from July 4th to September 28th.

Detroit Tigers fans seemed to warm up to Jonathan Schoop over the past two years, particularly during hot streaks like his 60-game stretch from June to August last season, when he hit a very Báez-like .328/.366/.555.

These streaks are just part of the deal with players like Schoop and Báez, who never met a pitch they didn’t want to hit. Their seasons can be real roller coaster rides, but those hot streaks are incredibly fun.

Next up, let’s talk about his power.

Detroit Tigers Javier Báez Power Comp: J.D. Martinez

We’ll get this out of the way up front: J.D. Martinez is a better pure hitter than Javier Báez. He has a better approach and better pure contact skills, and that has led to more production.

But in terms of raw power, Báez doesn’t have many peers in recent Tigers history. There have been 27 different players to hit a home run at least 480 feet since Statcast began tracking them in 2015. Martinez isn’t one of them, but Báez is.

How about exit velocity? There are 36 players who have hit at least two balls 116 MPH or harder since 2015, and Javier Báez is one of them. J.D. Martinez isn’t. He has only done it once.

Truth be told, this is another category where Jonathan Schoop is probably the best comparison. He and Báez both have three career home runs of 460+ feet, and they’ve both hit two balls at least 116 MPH. Avisaíl García, Nomar Mazara, and Justin Upton also have comparable raw power to Báez, but J.D. Martinez is the one who best exemplifies the sort of power we’re talking about here.

Detroit Tigers Javier Báez Speed Comp: Niko Goodrum

The Detroit Tigers haven’t exactly been known for their speedy, aggressive play over the past decade. Last year Robbie Grossman became just the fifth Tigers player to steal 20 bases in a season since 2010, and the first to do it since 2015.

Niko Goodrum’s run with the Detroit Tigers probably won’t be remembered particularly fondly, if it is remembered at all, but he consistently showed above-average speed, and was a deft baserunner who was a legitimate threat to steal a bag.

That a pretty accurate representation of Javier Báez on the bases, too. Neither he nor Goodrum are game-changing speed merchants like Trea Turner, or, to pluck a name from Tigers history, Quintin Berry, but both provide above-average value with their legs.

Javier Báez has stolen 53 bases on 74 tries since 2018, a decent 71.6 success rate, and according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric, he’s been an above-average runner in every season except 2020. Báez’s sprint speed also took a small dip in 2020, but he’s been an impressive runner for the rest of his career, including in 2021, when he ranked in the 86th percentile.

And, for what it’s worth, Javier Báez is one of the most entertaining base runners in the game. He consistently shows remarkable body control to evade tags when throws beat him, and he also manages to look pretty darn cool while doing it.