The Detroit Tigers and the 2022 MLB Draft: College Preview
For the first time since 2017, the Detroit Tigers are picking outside of the top ten in the MLB Draft.
We first took a stab at projecting the top of this class way back in July, shortly after the 2021 draft concluded, and things haven’t changed too dramatically since then. We have some performances from the Cape Cod League and the Collegiate National Team to discuss, and there have been the usual spate of unfortunate injuries, but mostly this is just a refresher for the start of the college baseball season.
We now know the Detroit Tigers will pick 12th in the 2022 MLB Draft. It’s a bit harder to find impact talent outside of the top ten, but it does happen. Nomar Garciaparra, Billy Wagner, and Jered Weaver all went 12th in their respective drafts, and the Detroit Tigers have picked 12th once before, in 1978. They used their pick on an athletic young outfielder from Michigan State named Kirk Gibson, and that turned out pretty well.
The 2022 MLB Draft: General Overview
Of course the odds of landing a quality player at pick 12 depend on the depth of the draft, so let’s take a very broad overview of this year’s class. If we break down the available players into six groups we can get a better idea of how it stacks up in terms of overall quality. For the purposes of this exercise, we are including catchers as infielders.
The class seems to offer a strong crop of college bats, an alarming lack of established college pitching, and a deep, talented pool of prep pitchers. If the draft were held today, we might see three prep hitters go in the first five picks for the first time since 1999 (Josh Hamilton, Corey Myers, B.J. Garbe), and there probably wouldn’t be a single college pitcher taken in the top ten, which hasn’t happened since 1978.
There’s still plenty of time for new players to emerge, though. Let’s take a look at some of the top names to know.
Detroit Tigers 2022 MLB Draft Options – College Pitchers
There are just a ton of question marks here. Hunter Barco was a big name as a prep pitcher and he has performed reasonably well with the Gators, but his upside is limited because his fastball is pretty average. Reggie Crawford’s heater was anything but average, sitting in the mid-90s and flirting with triple digits, and he was nearly untouchable in the summer. But he’s out for the year with an elbow injury, and he has practically no track record.
Peyton Pallette is another pitcher with impressive stuff but a limited track record, and he too will miss the year with Tommy John surgery. Ditto the lefty Connor Prielipp, who impressed in the shortened 2020 season and then threw just seven innings last year before eventually getting surgery.
Landon Sims feels a bit like the last man standing from this group, but he comes with some question marks, too. He was spectacular as the bullpen ace for the national champion Bulldogs last year, but he hasn’t started a game in college yet. Sometimes college relievers make a nice transition to starting, as Gavin Williams did last year, but sometimes they try it and fall apart, like Graeme Stinson did in 2019. Only time will tell with Sims.
Blade Tidwell ranks as the top college arm in the class to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, but now he’s out indefinitely with shoulder trouble. Carson Whisenhunt is a lefty with good size and a solid three-pitch mix, led by an outstanding changeup. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but he might be the safest bet in this group, and his profile is similar to that of Jordan Wicks, who went 21st overall to the Cubs in 2021.
https://twitter.com/BaseballAmerica/status/1493970929248002056?s=20&t=AG2HO6AugKW6uBLxiWkHMw
There are other pitchers in this class with a chance to shoot up the ranks, like Duke’s Marcus Johnson, Gonzaga’s Gabriel Hughes, and Miami’s Alex McFarlane, but the Detroit Tigers will likely look steer clear of college arms with the 12th pick. Fortunately for them, they should have plenty of good options at other positions.
Detroit Tigers 2022 MLB Draft Options – College Infielders
Catchers
The Detroit Tigers might not necessarily be in the market for a catcher early in the 2022 MLB Draft, but this quartet of talented backstops still deserves mention. All four offer an appealing mix of defensive ability and offensive potential, albeit to varying degrees. Hayden Dunhurst shows an impressive mix of arm strength, defense, patience, and power, while Kevin Parada comes with some defensive question marks, but a potential plus hit tool.
Daniel Susac probably has the most well-rounded profile of this group, with good athleticism behind the plate, a strong arm, and a nice combination of bat-to-ball skills and power. Logan Tanner is a bit like the turbo version of Dunhurst, with a huge arm, above-average defense tools, and plenty of power and patience to cover up for a potentially below-average hit tool.
Actual Infielders
MLB Pipeline considers Jacob Berry the top college bat in the class, and right now he looks like a consensus top-ten pick. He hit .352 with 17 home runs as a freshman for Arizona last year, and then hit .387 with four more bombs in 11 games with Team USA. Eric Brown is a tightly wound athlete with a funky setup at the plate, but he’s a strong defender with good contact skills and surprising pop for his size. He hit .292 with 9 homers for Coastal Carolina, then batted .282 with five more home runs in the Cape.
Peyton Graham has a bit of Gage Workman in him. He’s an impressive athlete with power potential and plenty of room to grow, and he can play all over the field, though he probably fits best at third base. Jace Jung had a spectacular sophomore season, batting .337 with 21 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He couldn’t match that production over the summer, but he’s regarded as one of the best offensive players in the class and should be a top ten pick even though he won’t provide much with the glove.
Brooks Lee has long been considered the best pure hitter among the college bats in this class, and he should also offer at least average power production from both sides of the plate, but he’s likely not a long-term shortstop. Robert Moore has plus instincts and a flair for coming up with big hits, but he likely tops out at average power and will probably have to play second base in pro ball.
We finish with a trio of interesting middle infielders who need to answer questions this year. Zach Neto had a terrific 2021 season, batting .405 with 12 home runs for Campbell (and posting a 3.43 ERA over 21 innings) and then he hit .304 with 3 homers in the Cape Cod League. But there’s a lot of movement in his swing, and he might not stick at shortstop in pro ball.
Jordan Sprinkle should be able to stay at shortstop and he has been productive at the plate, hitting .353 at UCSB and then batting .300 with the Collegiate National Team, but there are questions about his power potential with wood bats. And then there’s Carter Young, a no-doubt shortstop with average raw power from both sides of the plate, but worrisome contact numbers that conjure memories of Logan Davidson and Casey Martin.
It’s entirely possible one of the top infield bats slips to the Detroit Tigers at 12, but perhaps they’ll be more interested in one of the very intriguing outfielders in the class.
Detroit Tigers 2022 MLB Draft Options – College Outfielders
Dylan Beavers is tall lefty bat who posted impressive college numbers last year, and he’s young for the class with plenty of room to get stronger. But he’s a corner outfielder and he didn’t do much damage over the summer, batting .233 with two doubles in eight Cape Cod League games and just .143 with a home run in nine games with Team USA.
Gavin Cross is also a large lefty corner bat who had a strong college campaign (.345, 11 HR), but he impressed in the summer too. He went just 2-for-19 in the Cape, but both hits were home runs, and he raked for the Collegiate National Team, batting .455 with four homers in nine games.
We left Chase DeLauter off our initial list last year, and then he blew up over the summer. He’s built like former big leaguer Josh Hamilton, and he flashes five-tool ability along with impressive skills. He hit .386 with six home runs in 26 games for James Madison last season, and then he batted .298 with a league-leading nine homers in the Cape last summer. He walked more than he struck out, he could stick in center field thanks to shocking speed and a strong arm, and he doesn’t turn 21 until October. He has a real chance to go first overall.
Michigan’s Clark Elliot probably won’t even be a first rounder, but he raised his profile quite a bit over the summer after leading the Cape Code League with a .344 batting average. He’s a wiry athlete who doesn’t project to hit for a ton of power, but he shows plus bat control, and he has the speed and defensive chops to stick in center field.
Jud Fabian was an early option for the Detroit Tigers with the #3 overall pick last year, but he couldn’t allay scouts’ concerns about his contact ability, fell to 40th pick, and chose to return to school. He still has plenty of pop and should be able to stick in center field, but he needs to make a lot more contact.
We mentioned who the Detroit Tigers took the last time they drafted 12th, and Brock Jones might be the closest thing to Kirk Gibson in this class, right down to his left-field arm strength. He doesn’t quite have Gibby’s size or wheels, but he’s a legitimate power/speed threat who played football for Stanford, hit .311 with 18 home runs and 14 steals for the Cardinal last season, and then added three homers and a triple for Team USA.
Jared McKenzie has been a strong performer at Baylor for two seasons, batting .406 in 16 games in 2020 and then hitting .383 with 28 extra-base hits last year. But he’s more of an instincts-driven center fielder who will probably need to move to a corner in pro ball, and he really struggled on the Cape, batting .226 with just two extra-base hits (both doubles) and a 31% strikeout rate over 30 games.
Cayden Wallace was one of the top unsigned high-school infielders in the 2020 class. He moved to the outfield last year and was impressive for the Razorbacks, batting .279/.369/.500 with 14 home runs. He followed that up with a solid 18-game run in the Cape, batting .290 with seven extra-base hits. He fits best in a corner, so to move into the top half of the first round he’ll probably need to cut down on his strikeouts this year.
That’ll do it for the college preview. Keep an eye out next week as we recap some of the best performances of the weekend and take a closer look at the high-school draft class.