Detroit Tigers’ pitcher Casey Mize is not a bust

Give Casey Mize a chance

After the Detroit Tigers lost game 1 of a doubleheader to the Minnesota Twins yesterday, they made a few roster moves before game 2. Will Vest was activated from the COVID-IL, Drew Carlton was optioned back to Triple-A Toledo, and apparently the most notable move for Tigers fans, Casey Mize was transferred to the 60-day IL.

The replies to the above tweet are, quite frankly, a dumpster fire. Everyone is freaking about Mize being moved to the 60-day IL and how he’s going to need Tommy John surgery soon. But in reality, this move is not a big deal at all. All it does is add some roster flexibility for the team.

Mize has been on the IL since April 15—roughly a month and a half. Moving him to this 60-day IL is a retroactive move, meaning it dates back to the original date he was put on the IL. This does not add 60 days to his recovery time—it only adds about two weeks.

The Tommy John talk is just asinine. They ran several tests on his elbow before going forward with the rehab process and found no structural damage. He’s not going to undergo a surgery with a 12-18 month recovery time if he doesn’t need it.

Even if he does end up having Tommy John surgery, he still wouldn’t be a bust. Pitchers are coming back stronger than ever now after TJS. Look at Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani, Frankie Montas, and the Tigers’ own Michael Fulmer among others.

Casey Mize posted a 3.71 ERA last season. While some of the underlying numbers (like his 4.71 FIP) suggest that he actually pitched worse than his ERA would suggest, and the lack of strikeouts were a bit concerning, it was one (1) season in the big leagues. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t improve upon his rookie season.

It goes without saying that most of the “bust” labels come from his draft status. At 1:1, you want a franchise cornerstone, and Mize hasn’t quite lived up to that billing just yet. But when you look at the other picks at the top of the 2018 draft, who would you rather have? Joey Bart and his career .607 OPS? Alec Bohm and his -8 outs above average? How about Jarred Kelenic and his career .594 OPS and -1.8 WAR to this point?

The 2018 draft class just didn’t have the talent at the top. Mize was the safest pick, and for what it’s worth, the only player in the top 10 of the 2018 draft with a higher WAR so far than Casey Mize is Jonathan India, who, by the way, is also injured.

It’s very possible that Mize could still undergo Tommy John surgery, and if he does, so be it. It’s not nearly the death sentence for pitchers that it used to be.

I also think we need to reevaluate the whole “bust” label. A player is not a bust not even two full years into his career, in which the one full season was solid. Mize hasn’t been what the Tigers hoped he would be quite yet, but he has been far from catastrophically bad.

Casey Mize is still just 25 years old. It’s only his second full season in the big leagues. To write him off at this point in his career is just silly. He can still be the ace the Tigers expect him to be.