5 stats that sunk the Tigers' 2026 season, 5 that offer hope for 2027

The Tigers' futility to end August was probably the death blow to the Tigers' competitive window this season, but ultimately, it wasn't the reason the season was lost. I wouldn't even fully blame the 6-22 record in May, although it sticks out like a sore thumb. In truth, there were specific stats that represent the lack of clutch preventing us from having an equal and opposite Cinderella run to make the dance in September. Let's break them down.

5 fastballs of 100 mph or more

As you could probably guess, this was the lowest mark in Major League Baseball this season and represents the massive hole that was left when Will Vest was injured and Tarik Skubal was traded to the Dodgers. While I do not anticipate we will have this same fate next season simply due to Jackson Jobe and River Ryan becoming part of the mix again, the lack of high end velocity led to rapidly decreasing whiff and strikeout rates over the course of the season.

The 8-hole brought bad luck

The 8-hitter in a lineup isn't supposed to be your best bat by any means, but our collective 8-hole hitters were disproportionately ineffective compared to the rest of the lineup. Hitters in that spot posted a slash line of .200/.266/.333 (.601 OPS) which often killed rallies, and certainly failed to start them in innings like the fourth and sixth.

Who's on first, what's on second

The Tigers were nowhere near as bad as advertised with runners in scoring position this year, but they were very bad in one specific scenario: runners on first and second. With this configuration the team posted a .206/.288/.313 slash (.601 OPS), which led to the most stranded runners this season by the team. Considering that taking walks after leadoff singles was a common occurrence for this team, to be so unable to move the runners beyond this position is staggering.

The 2026 Tigers just didn't like the number 8

The eighth inning was a nightmare for the Tigers relief corps. Despite posting a squeaky-clean ERA of 2.14 in the ninth inning as a team, the eighth inning resulted in a team ERA of 5.33 with 1.99 SO/BB and the highest OPS of any individual inning with .777. Pitchers that most commonly threw the eighth include Kyle Finnegan with 34 appearances, Drew Anderson with 18, Tyler Holton with 18, and Jacob Waguespack with 17. Don't be fooled. The vast majority of the damage is on Finnegan, but Vest also had a rough time before injury, and so did Drew Sommers in his chances there.

32 blown saves

This leads me to perhaps the most crucial of these five numbers. As a team, we set the franchise record for blown saves, breaking 2004 and 2008's total of 28. Unsurprisingly, the team leader in this department is our friend Kyle Finnegan with 10. Unfortunately,Will Vest tied for second most on the team with 6 in just under half a season of work before succumbing to injuries, and somehow ended up tied with Kenley Jansen. To me, this suggests that Jansen wasn't as terrible as it may have felt he was, but that Finnegan truly was the primary problem in the pen.

It's very easy to be doom and gloom considering the way the Tigers fizzled out this year. There are certainly questions about how the bullpen will be constructed and if the team can stop suddenly fading on offense for days at a time. But some of those concerns can be spelled with the following five stats:

Run prevention!

This one's cheating because it's technically two numbers. The Tigers posted a 3.55 starter ERA and a 3.84 bullpen ERA, both top 10 in MLB. The starter ERA does factor in Skubal and Casey Mize before they were traded, but the starter ERA in the second half was still just 3.63, and the bullpen ERA actually decreased from 3.88 to 3.78 after the All Star Break.

wOBAcon and xwOBAcon against

On the same note as the previous point, the Tigers' quality of contact allowed by pitchers was pretty exceptional. As a staff, the team allowed the lowest wOBAcon in MLB (.344) while sporting the lowest expected wOBAcon in MLB as well (.343). Pair this with a .274 BABiP allowed, and you suddenly understand why, despite the lack of clutch pitching, the Tigers didn't allow very many runs this year as a staff. For those of you unfamiliar with wOBAcon, it is basically BABiP, but a Slugging Percentage equivalent using weights for each batting ball outcome (weighted on base average on contact).

45.3% GB rate against

The Tigers have, for years, been fantastic at finding groundball artists who can get weak contact. This year was no exception, with a remarkably high 45.3% GB rate on contact. This indicates that the Tigers' pitching is stifling pretty much every form of contact quality that would lead to good results for the opposing team. Framber Valdez was a point of contention in this department, but even he seems to have improved by season's end. If this staff can add any more swing and miss, it could be an incredibly difficult task for opposing teams next season and beyond.

Contact specialists

This is another two for one. I present you with the Tigers' team Launch Angle Sweet Spot percentage of 36.7%. This is the highest mark in MLB and means that the Tigers achieve the ideal launch angle for higher batting averages and slugging percentages (between 8 and 32 degrees) nearly 37% of the time they make contact, and 4% more than the league average. Pair this with their 9th ranked 84.6% contact rate on strikes, and you have a recipe for high potential offensive outcomes. Bear in mind that the majority of the core that produced these figures is returning next season, so this is unlikely to significantly regress year over year.

128 instances of going 1st to 3rd

Many people forgot that this team is the best in MLB at moving runners from first to third on a single. The Tigers achieved this 128 times, 17 more than second place. This team is getting younger, more contact oriented, more athletic, and making tons of contact with pitches in the strike zone. This is exactly the type of pattern you want to see out of a young, scrappy team searching for an identity, and is perhaps the most encouraging sight to see.

The numbers certainly don't all love the Tigers' performance in 2026. There are egregious clutch moments we'd like to have back, and far too many of them. But, on the other hand, the Tigers showed clear sabermetric signs of life in the second half as they rebuilt their core post-trade deadline. It would make sense if you're cautious about putting too much optimism into this team after the past season and a half, but I'd argue that if there's ever a season to bet on this team to jump forward, it's 2027.

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