Best possible Tigers trade deadline blueprint as MLB holds its breath on Tarik Skubal decision

With the Tigers' loss to the Orioles on Wednesday afternoon, they are 51-58, four games back of a Wild Card spot. They have three games against the Athletics remaining before the trade deadline, but even if they sweep and improve their record to 482, we'll be asking the same question we're asking now. Is it enough?

If anything, going out on a high note before the deadline might just convince the Tigers they're in an even better position to thread the needle. Sell Skubal for a haul that could have immediate impact, then keep trying to get to the postseason in August and September in a wide-open American League.

The temperature on Skubal within the Tigers fandom has changed. Although their agonizing loss to Baltimore on Wednesday certainly didn't help, there's now real belief that this team can forge ahead without him. It won't make the goodbye any less sad, but there's a lot of possibility in this team. If Scott Harris can actually do this trade justice, Detroit might be in business.

The start of the Tigers' road map for the trade deadline, unfortunately, looks like it's trading Skubal. But where do they go from there?

Step 1: Trade Tarik Skubal for a haul that includes a major league starter — at minimum

The ideal Skubal trade would net the Tigers a controllable major league starter, a late-inning reliever, and an outfield prospect who's not far away from the majors. Whether that's from the Dodgers, for the likes of Justin Wrobleski (not Emmet Sheehan), Edgardo Henriquez, and Mike Sirota; or from the Brewers, for Logan Henderson, Aaron Ashby, and Josh Adamczewski; or some equivalent haul from any of the Rays, Braves, Yankees, or Phillies — the Tigers should settle for nothing less.

This gets the Tigers basically everything they're looking for. They could immediately slot the new starter into the rotation, they're reportedly asking for late-inning relievers independent of a Skubal deal, and their prospect pipeline is light on outfielders who could be ready by 2027, apart from Max Clark.

Step 2: Trade Casey Mize for more bullpen help and/or an outfielder

Mize would be tough to say goodbye to as well, given how good he's been this year when he's healthy, but if the Tigers aren't going to be sentimental about Skubal, they definitely aren't going to be about Mize.

His injury history this season has undoubtedly hurt his trade value, and the Red Sox and Nationals' Connelly Early-Curtis Mead deal set a bizarre market for hitting at the deadline, but there are certainly teams that are going to want to add a guy like Mize.

A 1:1 swap sounds about right for Mize, but the Tigers shouldn't settle for a prospect who's still a ways away. Detroit's bullpen proved on Wednesday that just one late-inning reliever might not do the trick. If they can add another, or even an outfielder with a year and a half of control left, dealing Mize could be worth it.

Step 3: Avoid a deadline like 2025 at all costs

If all else fails, Harris just can't do what he did last year. There's a world — unlikely though it is — where the Tigers keep all of Skubal, Mize, Gleyber Torres, and anyone else whose name has been out there in rumors, and then the front office decides they're really going to go for it this year.

What Harris did last year might qualifying as "really going for it" to him, but it certainly didn't to anyone else. Kyle Finnegan is the only acquisition that came out of that deadline looking good (and now the Tigers' re-signing him doesn't look as great). Charlie Morton was DFA'ed after pitching 39 1/3 innings. Chris Paddack barely clung onto his roster spot until he became a free agent at the end of the season. Randy Dobnak never appeared in the majors. Paul Sewald threw 4 1/3 innings.

We can't be doing that again. This team is a "good team with a bad record," as AJ Hinch loves to say, but they're almost certainly not a postseason team if they don't get the right return for Skubal, or if they keep him and don't add on top — just like they did last year.

The Tigers trading or not trading Skubal might make or break this deadline, and the team that gets him might be punching their ticket to the World Series. The Tigers are in a good position to pick up the pieces without their ace — they cannot blow it.

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