Casey Mize’s brutal Padres debut lends more clarity to Tigers’ difficult decision

The Tarik Skubal trade was all the talk over the weekend right before the trade deadline, but one more deal was made by Scott Harris right at the buzzer, which caused a stir. He dealt Casey Mize to the San Diego Padres for their No. 2 prospect, Kash Mayfield.

Many Tigers fans had mixed feelings about the deal because Mize was one of the more consistent pitchers this season and he would likely be needed for a playoff run, especially with Skubal out of the picture. However, Harris felt like he needed to move the aging pitcher whose velocity has been on the downward trend for the past few years.

After his final start as a Tiger and his brutal debut with the Padres in which he gave up nine hits, eight earned runs, and he walked three batters (all three are season-highs) in 3.1 innings, the Mize trade now makes a lot more sense.

"Not the first impression I wanted to make for my teammates and for the fans," Mize told AJ Cassavell of MLB.com after hie San Diego unveiling. "Pretty tough time to have the worst start of my career. I just put us in a really tough spot, didn't give us a chance to win. So, frustrated and embarrassed by that."

Mize’s velocity is trending in the wrong direction, and his final start with the Tigers was a real eye-opener for Harris. His velocity almost dropped off the table in the span of a couple of starts.

It’s not often that a pitcher goes from sitting at around 94 mph for his four-seamer to just under 92 in just a couple of starts. His fastball was even falling under 90 mph throughout his final Tigers start.

That had to set off a ton of alarm bells for Harris and the Tigers’ front office. Holding on to a 29-year-old pitcher in a contract year when he’ll likely be asking for a pretty big contract — especially since his ERA was in the 2.50-2.70 range for most of the season — wouldn’t make a ton of sense.

Dealing a 29-year-old starter who was probably maximizing his potential this season and a declining velocity for a top prospect in the Padres’ minor league system doesn’t seem so bad now.

Plus, Mize even said that the Tigers didn’t approach him about an extension before the trade.

The Casey Mize trade feels like a home run for the Tigers

While there are still going to be many critics of the Mize deal and Harris is always going to have his doubters until the organization proves that it wants to compete right now, it feels like a home run.

There’s an argument to be had about the Skubal trade being slightly lopsided, but losing Mize shouldn’t cause anyone to lose sleep. There’s a slew of reasons that it just made sense.

• Mize will be 30 by next year’s postseason.
• His velocity is dropping somewhat rapidly.
• He’s in a contract year and would likely demand a lot.
• He has a career 4.06 ERA.
• He’s only reached 100 innings pitched three times in his career.
• He’s dealt with injuries almost every season.

Mize’s horrid debut with the Padres might just be the first step in proving that Harris was right about this deal. He got a great return for a guy who just never lived up to his No. 1 overall pick status, to no real fault of his own. Injuries just aged him quicker than anyone expected.

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