Could Framber Valdez’s strong finish indicate he’ll salvage his Tigers contract?

Scott Harris and the Tigers decided to spend some money this offseason on pretty much everything but a Tarik Skubal extension. They got Gleyber Torres back after he accepted their qualifying offer, re-signed Kyle Finnegan (woof), signed Kenley Jansen, and signed Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez to expensive deals.

Verlander’s one-year, $13 million contract seemed well worth it at the time no matter what kind of product the Tigers would get out of him because everyone wanted to see him retire in Detroit.

Valdez’s three-year, $115 million deal was a little more head-scratching.

Detroit was willing to spend money everywhere other than where many felt it was needed. This is what soured many fans on Harris, but he’s slowly earning some respect back for his farm system full of future stars.

Still, the Valdez deal seemed like a reach, especially for a 32-year-old starter, but it was at least a decent backup plan in the event Skubal didn’t re-sign with the Tigers. Well, Skubal is gone and Valdez is sporting a 4.03 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and a 10-12 record and it’s starting to look like the contract he signed with Detroit was just a pile of $115 million in cash just lit on fire.

Valdez will finish 2026 with his lowest win total since 2020, his highest WHIP since 2019, his fewest strikeouts during a season in which he pitched at least 170 innings by about 50, and his lowest K/BB (strikeouts per walk ratio) since 2019. At the age of 32, this looked like the sign of an obvious decline.

However, in the final month of the season, something clicked for Valdez. He gave up just five earned runs in 23 1/3 innings, posting a 1.93 ERA in four starts. Unfortunately, he only recorded two wins as the offense didn’t help him much in his final two outings, but he got his ERA from 4.36 to start the month down to 4.03 to end the year. Not too shabby.

But does this salvage his contract? Honestly, no.

One good month doesn’t exactly make up for the rest of the year’s letdown. It’s a good sign heading into the 2027 season but he needs to show a lot more than just a strong four-game stretch. Was it nice to see? Absolutely, but he still had just 19 strikeouts to 10 walks and his Ks per nine innings were lower than what you’d want to see from a $115 million pitcher.

Not to mention, he gave up at least three earned runs in the his four starts leading into the month of September.

Is this an encouraging sign? For sure. Has it salvaged his hefty three-year deal? Not quite. He needs to show a lot more next season.

Salvaged or not, the Framber Valdez deal will always be questioned

When the offseason began, there was really just one thing at the top of everyone’s wish list: extend Skubal. The front office avoided it as much as possible and any rumored numbers being thrown around as offers by the Tigers were insanely low-balled.

So when Harris and the Tigers decided not to extend Skubal before the season and instead pay Valdez almost what the best pitcher in baseball was asking, it caused a lot of confusion.

Skubal ended up getting $32 million for the 2026 season with the Tigers but projections have him earning somewhere in the ballpark of $40 million per year when he does eventually sign a new contract. That made Valdez’s $38 million-per-year contract seem a little ridiculous because the Tigers were willing to offer that to a guy who had a sub-4.00 ERA in six straight years but wouldn’t do the same for the best pitcher in baseball.

Going into the season, fans were already a little skeptical of the move. Maybe the front office was willing to spend boatloads of money to win it all? That was the more desperate hope that inevitably vanished with the trade of Skubal to the Dodgers.

Either way, Valdez had his doubters going into the year and he’s really played into their favor outside of the final month of the year. Is it concerning that he’s just not locking in? Yeah, but he’s at least entering the offseason with a fraction of grace from the fans.

The first month of the 2027 season will tell us a lot about Harris’ currently questionable Valdez deal.

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