ESPN confirms what Tigers fans already know about agonizing Tarik Skubal conversations

Fans of the Detroit Tigers don’t need a national panel to explain why the Tarik Skubal discourse feels like chewing glass. Even after a strong season, you have to stare straight into a worst-case scenario: the front office tries to ride the “we’re close” wave for too long, holds onto the ace through the deadline, only to watch October from the couch anyway.

That’s why ESPN’s framing hits a nerve. Skubal is heading into his final year of team control and the sport is treating him like a future record-breaker — potentially even the first pitcher to reach the $400 million neighborhood if he gets to the market. 

And that gravity doesn’t just change the stakes — it pulls Detroit into the fog where “contending” stops meaning anything.

ESPN’s Skubal warning is the nightmare Tigers can’t afford

ESPN kicked around a few different roads, but the only one that really matters is the middle path: keep Skubal unless 2026 starts to wobble, then flip him at the deadline. The problem is the expanded playoffs have made “in the race” basically meaningless. You can hover around a Wild Card spot and convince yourself it’s momentum… right up until you realize you’ve just been bargaining with the standings.

One agent on ESPN’s panel basically said the quiet part out loud: if you hold Skubal through the deadline and still miss the playoffs, that’s a catastrophe. MLB.com also noted Detroit would be weighing trade offers against the reality of a compensation pick (just after the first round) if Skubal walks in free agency. 

A comp pick is nice. But Skubal is a decade-defining arm. Those things are not in the same universe.

There has to be a hard internal standard that goes beyond just being within striking distance. If you’re not tracking like a real playoff team, then you have to move him. Don’t waste time romanticizing a 50/50 Wild Card chase.

The Dodgers piece, of course, is the part that’ll make you want to throw your phone. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers predicted Skubal ends up in Los Angeles in July if Detroit falls out of the race, because L.A. can justify a pure rental in a way almost nobody else can. Gross, right? It also makes a ton of sense — which is exactly why Detroit should be prepared for it.

If Scott Harris is truly living in the “no untouchables” world publicly, that’s fine — but the private plan has to be ruthless: either 2026 is a real shot, or it’s an asset-maximization moment that accelerates 2027 and 2028. 

Because the only outcome Tigers fans genuinely can’t live with is the one underlined in neon: holding Skubal too long, missing October, and then calling it “unlucky” afterward.