The Tigers lost their opportunity to clinch the AL Central at home and against a division rival when they lost their series opener to the Guardians on Tuesday night. It was a painful watch; after Casey Mize allowed a respectable three runs across 5 1/3 innings and Kerry Carpenter tied the game in the bottom of the ninth with a solo homer, Will Vest gave up four runs in the 10th and the Tigers offense couldn't close the gap in the bottom frame.
It brought the Tigers' division lead over the Guardians down to 5.5 games. Detroit is 4-6 over its last 10, Cleveland is 9-1. Not to mention, these two teams still have another series remaining.
The Guardians always seem to manage to give the Tigers grief, and they did get very, very lucky during Tuesday's win.
Fears of a devastating Tigers collapse are back as Guardians refuse to go quietly
🚨 Guardians are luck merchants! 🚨
— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) September 17, 2025
⚾ Guardians @ Tigers
🏟️ 09/16/2025
Final Score:
Guardians 7 - 5 Tigers
📊 Deserve-to-Win:
Guardians 4% - 91% Tigers (Tie 5%)#MLB #Statcast #Guardians #Tigers#GuardsBall #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/ELhYaSDT8m
On July 8, the Tigers had a 15.5-game lead over the Guardians that's been quickly whittled down by 10 — and they still have five more games to play against each other this season. If the Tigers keep losing at this rate and the Guardians keep winning, could Detroit really lose what once seemed like an insurmountable hold on the division?
That question came up a lot right around the All-Star break, when the Tigers posted a .440 winning percentage in July.
Always watch Chris Castellani’s videos after a Guardians win because he give you gold like this pic.twitter.com/vqPiwmJkKL
— Always the Jake (@JacobsFieldRBW) September 17, 2025
Carpenter said after the loss, "It's a great feeling to be the ones being chased because that means you’re in first place. We've been in the driver's seat most of the year, and they've come closer and closer. [...] It's just been a little tough recently, and some of the games aren't going our way. It'll be exciting down the stretch, but we hope to get back to our best pretty soon."
The Tigers' magic number has been stuck at seven while the Guardians have continued to claw their way up. The gap between the two teams is still the second-biggest of any division race in baseball, but that's sort of a cold comfort when you look at how far ahead Detroit was just a few weeks ago.
They desperately need to win this series if they want to quiet fears and help make sure that they won't see the Guardians in October ... because that Cleveland dark magic may come back to bite them when it really matters most.
