History shows Tigers’ odds of bouncing back from Sept. failures aren’t in their favor

Despite a disastrous September, the Detroit Tigers will be playing postseason baseball in October. Ironically, Detroit will face off in the American League Wild Card Series against the team that just surged past them for the AL Central crown: the Cleveland Guardians. More relevant to the Tigers than their playoff draw, however, is the fact that they have arguably the best pitcher in baseball on their team in the form of Tarik Skubal, who sounds eager for the postseason to begin.

Skubal will take the ball in Game 1 against the Guardians on Tuesday at Progressive Field, and Detroit has to feel amazing about its chances. Skubal, expected by many to take home his second consecutive Cy Young Award in 2025, has been phenomenal this season, posting a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 31 starts for the Tigers.

Now that the Tigers have avoided completely blowing their playoff berth, anything can happen, especially with Skubal locked in starting on Tuesday.

“A team that stays together is what? Very dangerous,” Hinch said on Saturday night after the Tigers clinched, per The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen. “The best time to be dangerous is in October.”

Tigers’ September doldrums remain more relevant than Detroit would like to acknowledge

When Skubal steps on the mound in Cleveland on Tuesday afternoon, Hinch and the rest of the Tigers’ clubhouse — not to mention Detroit’s fan base — won’t be thinking at all about the team’s dreadful 7-17 record in September, nor about how Detroit choked away the division crown and nearly missed the playoffs entirely.

That’s all good and well, but for MLB playoff observers perhaps not as emotionally invested in the Tigers (and/or for Tigers die-hards unafraid to look reality in the eye), there’s still history to consider, and it’s a history that Detroit would have to defy to reach or win the World Series.

“No team has ever made MLB’s postseason with a September as bad as the one the Tigers just staged,” Stavenhagen reminded fans on Monday. “No team has ever made the World Series with a second half as poor as the one the Tigers just finished. In every MLB season before the expanded playoffs began in 2022, the Tigers would be headed home rather than playing in October.”

There are exceptions to the rule, of course. Per Stavenhagen, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals and the 2000 New York Yankees were two clubs that were atrocious in September but went on to win it all. Hilariously, per Stavenhagen, the ’00 Yankees lost 15 of their last 18 regular-season games, at which point manager Joe Torre started offering champagne to his players before the game.

As Stavenhagen noted, though, Detroit isn’t doing itself any favors by merely sitting back and resting on the premise that what it wants to achieve, though unlikely, has been done once or twice before.

“Those (Cardinals and Yankees) teams serve as a blueprint for what is ahead,” Stavenhagen wrote. “But this year’s Tigers still have issues to overcome. Their lineup has regressed deeply in the second half of the season … Their rotation features only three true starters … their bullpen … has only a 3.99 ERA (ranking 14th) and 4.49 FIP (ranking 25th) since the All-Star break.”

Stavenhagen provided further historical context to make Detroit’s title hopes appear bleak. “Although there are so many examples that dispel the notion of taking 'momentum' into the postseason, it’s still worth noting no team has ever had a worse second-half winning percentage than this year’s Tigers, who finished 28-37, and ended up making the World Series,” Stavenhagen pointed out. “Although several teams have turned blue Septembers into October gold, the 2015 Royals are the only champion in the past 18 years who had a losing record in September.”

Skubal gives the Tigers a path forward, however, and if Detroit pulls off even one series win, it’ll only strengthen the argument that the regular season isn’t as crucial as it seems — all you have to do is get in.