If CBS Sports’ comp is all it takes to extend Kevin McGonigle, Tigers must do it now

Sometimes the smartest moves a franchise can make happen before the rest of the league is paying attention. The Detroit Tigers are staring at one of those moments right now — one where hesitation costs more than conviction, and where believing early in elite talent could define the next decade of baseball in Detroit.

If the Jackson Chourio contract is truly the bar, as suggested by CBS Sports' Mike Axisa, then the Tigers shouldn’t hesitate for a single second. They should extend Kevin McGonigle now, before the price moves from “aggressive” to “uncomfortable,” and before a generational bat forces their hand the hard way.

This isn’t a speculative gamble anymore. This is an opportunity. McGonigle isn’t just another highly ranked prospect. He’s arguably the best prospect in baseball, a label that only comes along every few years — and when it does, smart organizations act early, not cautiously.

Detroit has already crossed this bridge once. Two years ago, the Tigers signed Colt Keith to a six-year deal worth just under $29 million before he’d ever taken a big-league at-bat. That contract wasn’t reckless — it was visionary. It signaled a front office willing to bet on elite makeup, elite skill and long-term value rather than wait for arbitration battles and inflated free-agent prices.

McGonigle is that philosophy taken one step further. He’s younger. He’s more advanced offensively. And his profile carries even less risk than most prospects because his value is rooted in elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills — the things that translate at every level.

Last season, at just 21 years old, McGonigle posted a .991 OPS across two minor-league levels while doing something that should stop evaluators in their tracks: walking more (59) than he struck out (46), while also piling up 52 extra-base hits in just 88 games. That combination isn’t just rare. It’s predictive.

Jackson Chourio comp shows why Tigers need to lock up Kevin McGonigle sooner rather than later

Axisa points to Chourio’s eight-year, $82 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers as the relevant comparison for McGonigle and the Tigers, and that’s exactly right.

Chourio had barely touched Triple-A when Milwaukee locked him up. The Brewers didn’t wait for a debut. They didn’t wait for a Rookie of the Year vote. They understood that once a player like that proves he belongs, the leverage flips instantly.

If that contract is what it takes to secure McGonigle’s prime — and potentially multiple free-agent years — then the Tigers should already be drafting the paperwork.

The $82 million price tag sounds big until you contextualize it. One mid-rotation free-agent starter now costs $20–25 million per year. One above-average corner bat costs $18–22 million annually. One arbitration year for a superstar can exceed $30 million (ask Tarik Skubal). An eight-year deal at that number could easily turn into one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball by Year 3.

Without an extension for McGonigle, the Tigers would face the same uncomfortable service-time calculus teams have wrestled with for years. Delay the debut and protect control? Or put your best players on the field and accept the long-term cost?

An extension clears the runway to put McGonigle on the Opening Day roster when he’s ready — not when the calendar says it’s safe. It sends a message to the clubhouse that performance is rewarded, not delayed.

The worst-case scenario isn’t that McGonigle struggles. It's that he does exactly what everyone expects — hits immediately, controls the zone, becomes a franchise cornerstone — and the Tigers are suddenly negotiating from a position of weakness they could have avoided (again, just ask Skubal).

If the Chourio deal truly “sets the market,” then that market is still reasonable. It won’t be forever. Elite prospects don’t get cheaper once they prove you were right about them. If this is all it takes, the Tigers need to do it now — before McGonigle makes waiting impossible.