Jeff Passan's free agency prediction for Jack Flaherty has Tigers fans celebrating

The Tigers re-signing Jack Flaherty was a huge win for their offseason, especially after Scott Harris' insistence that the team wouldn't be going after starting pitcher free agents after they got Alex Cobb. Flaherty had an admirable bounce-back campaign in the first half of 2024, then went on to win a World Series with the Dodgers. He liked the Tigers, and the they desperately needed another arm in the rotation.

Flaherty signed a two-year, $35 million contract with a player option for the second year and built-in escalators. It was cause for celebration, provided he maintain the effectiveness he'd rediscovered in 2024.

That isn't exactly how things have worked out. There were some signs of a quick regression when Flaherty went to the Dodgers (who seem to mess up all of their pitchers one way or the other), but the Tigers were the team that fixed him, so maybe they could get him to that place again.

Instead, Flaherty has a 4.85 ERA over 146 2/3 innings of work. It's not his worst year, but it's not what the Tigers want out of a guy who was supposed to be No. 2 in the rotation this year.

Given the underperformance, there's a general assumption that Flaherty will exercise his player option and stay with the Tigers in 2026, whether or not fans like it. However, Jeff Passan predicted that Flaherty will opt out and test free agency again. We can only hope, right?

Jeff Passan predicts Jack Flaherty will opt out of Tigers contract for 2026

Passan cites Flaherty's 171 strikeouts (27.4 K%) so far this season as his biggest calling card to other teams for a potentially longer contract in free agency. If length is what he's looking for, then that could encourage him to move on from Detroit early, but there's almost no way that he'll receive more than the $20 million he's owed next season from another team; $15-$17 million seems like a better bet (and that still feels like we're pushing it).

Flaherty's last free agency already went on longer than anyone expected after a 3.17 ERA year — imagine how it would go if he's trying to sell himself to teams after a 4.50+ ERA season.

If the Tigers can get more consistency out of Flaherty down the stretch, him opting into 2026 might not be the end of the world (and he pitched a pretty solid two outings ago against the Royals). If they can't, then Tigers fans can only hope and pray that Passan's prediction becomes reality and they can spend that money on somebody else.