MLB executive's Tarik Skubal contract prediction will make Tigers fans sick

Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in July 2023, Detroit Tigers ace left-hander Tarik Skubal has been the stuff of legends. This year's unanimous Cy Young Award winner in the American League, the 28-year-old has established himself as one of the game's best starting pitchers.

And while that's great news for the Tigers in the short-term, it could also be the very thing that ends his time in the Motor City ... especially if a new contract prediction proves to be anywhere close to accurate when he hits free agency after the 2026 season.

"If everything goes right, he will get $400 million in free agency in two years," a National League evaluator told the Detroit Free Press. "More realistically, something will go wrong because he's a pitcher, and that'll drive his price down to the $300 million range."

Four hundred million dollars is a staggering amount of money for someone who plays every five days and during a time when arm injuries are plaguing the sport at unprecedented levels. Japanese rookie right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto set the new free agent record for a pitcher last winter, signing a 12-year, $325 million deal that narrowly edged out the contract Gerrit Cole signed with the New York Yankees (nine years, $324 million).

No other starting pitchers in the history of baseball have ever surpassed $300 million in free agency. So to throw out $400 million for Skubal is not something that should be taken lightly.

Like the piece notes, though, a lot can happen between now and then. Skubal doesn't exactly have a clean bill of health, although he's been reliable over the last year and a half. All it takes is another arm injury to torpedo any hopes of becoming the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history so, in all honesty, we're probably getting way ahead of ourselves even talking about this at this point.

As for the Tigers, ownership hasn't exactly shied away from big contracts, but they've never given out anything close to $400 million (nor have the majority of big-league teams). Detroit has only exceeded the $200 million mark in CBT payroll two times — the most recent being 2017. In 2024, their CBT payroll number barely cracked $100 million, so thinking the Ilitch family is itching to tie up half that amount in a pitcher annually seems far-fetched, at best.

Heading into the 2026-27 offseason, Skubal will be 30 years old. Assuming you don't want to pay him for a full 10 years (which you might have to in order to hit that $400 million target), we're talking about an AAV somewhere in the $50-60 million range. There's no world where the Tigers are the team ponying up that kind of cash for any player, let alone a pitcher heading into his 30s.

If this is how things play out with Skubal, Tigers fans better enjoy the next two years because he's as good as gone once the book is closed on the 2026 campaign. Even if the number doesn't hit $400 million, the forecast suggests it'll be far higher than what the team is willing to pay.