One year after Alex Bregman heartbreak, Tigers have it even better with Kevin McGonigle

The biggest offensive name of the 2024-2025 MLB offseason was third baseman Alex Bregman because of his uniquely consistent offensive profile and solid defensive capabilities despite his somewhat advanced age.

Despite the Tigers being the primary courter of Bregman deep into February 2025, he ended up infamously pivoting to the Red Sox on a shocking "prove-it" style deal with monstrous annual value. What may have been particularly devastating was the fact that the Tigers seemed to not even be aware that Bregman would have been open to short-term, high-value deals, based on the six-year offer that ended up being brought to light once all was said and done.

But the Tigers' first ever draft pick under Scott Harris to reach the major leagues ended up producing 7.1 bWAR between the two positions Bregman himself plays (shortstop and third base). In doing so, he actually outperformed the veteran at his very own game.

While Bregman certainly would have been a perfect fit for the Tigers, once he balked, Kevin McGonigle was the reason they weren't willing to re-enter the Bregman sweepstakes in the 2025-2026 offseason. This may have been the right call.

The two side by side

There is an immense amount of similarity when looking at McGonigle and Bregman's raw skillsets. The two of them both thrive on line-drive heavy approaches with relatively low average exit velocities, made up for in droves with excellent plate discipline and zone contact rates. But, between the two McGonigle is better at what they both do well.

First, he produces more ideal launch angles on a more regular basis (36.3% sweet spot rate vs. Bregman's 32.8%), while also swinging markedly more in the strike zone when compared to Bregman (67.2% zone swing vs. Bregman's 60.1%). In addition, McGonigle walks more, chases and whiffs less, while producing a higher expected batting average and expected slugging percentage, so even luck is on McGonigle's side.

The ballpark formerly known as Comerica

While Bregman did outproduce McGonigle on a rate basis (28 home runs, 93 RBIs) the two play in distinct offensive environments. While McGonigle spent this season in the ballpark recently known as Comerica Park, one of the more suppressive parks for home run power, Bregman plays in among the friendliest ballparks for right-handed power in Wrigley Field.

In fact, Bregman's home ballpark has always been friendly to right-handed bats, which is part of the advantage of his package: as long as you play in a right-hand-friendly ballpark, Bregman will almost assuredly thrive there. But McGonigle presents an offensive skillset that thrives differently in every ballpark, meaning that adjusting to San Francisco or Cincinnati is all just a matter of approach.

McGonigle, as a left-handed line-drive first hitter, is perfectly designed to thrive at Comerica Park. He can take advantage of the deep right-center gap and rack up doubles and triples, but has also proven that the walls are not too deep. Conversely, Bregman, because he has only ever played his home ballgames at right-hand-friendly parks, saw his power output increase markedly as he regained full health.

While Bregman's actual numbers in Detroit don't look bad due to an excellent season in 2025 against them, (6 HRs, .784 OPS), under the hood shows a .228 BABiP there for his career, and well below-average production compared to his own baseline (83 tOPS+ for those familiar). Ultimately, we can't be certain that Bregman would have comparably performed well in Detroit.

Obviously, there's no real reason to believe Bregman wouldn't have performed reasonably well as a Tiger, but after the salary he ended up receiving for his age-32 season and beyond, the Tigers have ended up in a pretty solid position financially, while having eight more seasons of McGonigle. What was once a major storyline that led to vocal unrest and massive discourse across the fanbase has been reduced to a footnote by a sensation that wears No. 7.

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