Padres learning the Casey Mize truth Tigers fans knew all too well for years in Detroit

After Tarik Skubal was dealt at the trade deadline, Tigers fans knew that Casey Mize would be next. It wasn't quite as heartbreaking, but it was still disappointing given everything that Mize was supposed to be in Detroit. Skubal's greatness came out of nowhere as a ninth-round pick, but Mize, infamously, went first overall, as he was widely expected to.

Instead of being the Tigers' next incarnation of Justin Verlander, though, he was only either kind of okay until 2025, or he was injured. There were injury concerns with him as a draft prospect, and then an MLB prospect, but no one was quite ready for exactly how often he would be hurt.

After six major league seasons, Mize's season high in innings pitched is just 150 1/3 in 2021. He pitched all of 10 innings in 2022 and missed 2023 entirely after Tommy John.

Before the deadline this year, he spent two stints on the IL with adductor issues. To his credit, he always bounced back well, but the problems have persisted into his short time with the Padres. On Sunday, he exited his fourth start for San Diego after 2 2/3 innings with a sprained ankle. Tests haven't shown any signs of real structural damage, but he's considered day-to-day.

Casey Mize's injury issues come back to haunt him with Padres after Tigers deal

To be fair, the sprained ankle wasn't caused by anything that happened on the mound. Mize said he slipped walking down the dugout steps between the second and third innings, when a spike of his cleat got stuck on the edge of a step.

But there are just some guys who seem particularly snakebitten throughout their careers. Scott Harris had no way of knowing something like this might happen, but given Mize's history, trading him was a prescient move.

The Tigers may be among the teams who approach Mize when he reaches free agency, but the same thing that might've given them pause on a contract extension is the same thing that will almost certainly keep him from getting a long-term deal in the offseason. He just can't stay healthy.

A two- or three-year contract with plenty of escalators built in based on innings pitched feels likely, and that's a deal the Tigers might actually be willing to make, but it certainly depends on how he finishes out the season in San Diego, and he's not off to a great start.

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