5 Detroit Tigers players that have been horrifically unlucky this season

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It is safe to say that the 2023 season isn't one that many Detroit Tigers fans are going to remember fondly. Many of the young guys that they hoped would break out this season either underperformed and/or got hurt. The end result has been a Tigers team that is 11 games under .500 and the thought that this rebuild may take longer than hoped has steadily gained steam as the season has gone on.

However, not everything that has happened has been the Tigers' fault. While there have certainly been some questionable play and roster decisions along the way, there are a few Tigers players that have had some really rotten luck this season and are probably better than their stat lines from 2023 show.

Here are 5 Detroit Tigers players that have been horrifically unlucky this season

Luck is something that is often hard to quantify, but that hasn't stopped those that create baseball data analysis from trying. What is going to be the focus here is a group of Tigers players that have significantly underperformed their expectated stats (xStats if you will). For hitters, that means looking at their xBA, BABIP, and xWOBA. For pitchers, xFIP and and xERA are going to be the metrics of choice. If you are unfamiliar with those metrics, Fangraphs put together a great glossary of baseball metrics terms with detailed explanations you should definitely peruse. There will also be notes on guys that have been unlucky in more obvious ways like getting hurt, etc.

Anyways, let's take a look at the unluckiest Detroit Tigers players from the 2023 season.

Spencer Torkelson

It is probably safe to say that Tigers fans are pretty disappointed with Spencer Torkelson so far. After picking him 1st overall in the 2020 draft, Tork has been fairly pedestrian in terms of his overall numbers in the big leagues so far. His 2023 season seems to have been a step forward, but it is hard to get too excited about a guy worth 1.5 fWAR while hitting .237 and being just an above average hitter who occasionally hits dingers and little more.

However, a deeper look shows that Torkelson may be closer to breaking out than you may think. While his actual wOBA sits at .331 and he is hitting .237, his expected wOBA is .356 and his xBA is .255. While neither of those numbers are particularly awesome, it does indicate some underperformance and bad luck. Tork has hit the ball hard at an elite rate this season and if he makes some small adjustments, he could be primed for a big year in 2024.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal is an obvious pick here if for no other reason being that he has had to deal with his fair share of injury issues this year. Fortunately, Skubal is back now after his lengthy rehab and overall results have been quite good with a 3.25 ERA while striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings pitched in his 13 starts this season. Looking at his expected stats, he has been even better than that.

In 69.1 innings this season which is a decent sized sample, Skubal's FIP sits at 2.28 with an xFIP of 2.78 and an xERA of 2.61. Having a 3.25 ERA and 2.6 fWAR in just 13 starts is not bad whatsoever. However, Skubal's ability to miss bats and not give up walks this season gives him the profile of a bona fide ace instead of the just "very good pitcher" numbers that show up on the back of his baseball card.

Jake Rogers

The Tigers don't employ Jake Rogers for his bat as he a defensive wonder as a catcher. Rogers had a decent season at the plate last year, but expectations have remained relatively low for his offense. However, it sure seems like he has gotten a raw deal in 2023 when it comes to his batted ball luck.

In addition to having just a .268 average on batted balls in play (which is low even for a catcher), Rogers has significantly underperformed his xWOBA (.325 expected vs. .303 actual) and his xBA (.231 expected vs. .216 actual). A big jump in the number of ground balls he has hit is largely to blame, but Rogers generally hits the ball hard and, in theory, his luck should turn around if he keeps that up.

Brendan White

Heading over to the bullpen, the Tigers' relievers have pretty much been either exactly as good as their peripherals would expect them to be or in some cases (looking at you, Tyler Holton and Alex Lange) even overperformed their expected stats. However, one Tigers bullpen arm that has had a rough run of luck is Brendan White.

While White has a 5.09 ERA in 33 appearances this season, his expected numbers are significantly better than that. His FIP is just 3.85 with his xFIP sitting right there as well at 3.88. HIs xERA is still 4.53, but that is still a half a run better than what he has actually put up in 2023. White needs to improve when it comes to giving up hard contact, but if he can take that step and still continue to get a lot of ground balls, he should be in good shape going forward.

Zach McKinstry

Another guy who doesn't have particularly high expectations on his bat is Zach McKinstry. The bulk of Zach's value at present is with his baserunning and his defense. Posting a 79 wRC+ in almost 500 plate appearances is never good. However, he had some decidedly and surprisingly poor fortune this year as well.

For a guy who can actually run, having a .285 BABIP is pretty low and we would expect something over .300 at least for a guy with his profile. Looking at his xWOBA and xBA, McKinstry has underperformed his .310 xWOBA by a full 23 points and his .243 xBA by 13 points. Zach may end up being a better hitter than many currently think especially if he can get that hard hit % of his up a bit.

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