Detroit Tigers: 1 contract extension to make and 1 to avoid

It is safe to say that the 2023 season is not going particularly well for the Detroit Tigers. In fairness, expectations weren’t particularly high for this squad as they came into the season with holes in the roster and a lot of youth. Still, it hasn’t felt great to see Detroit struggling when the AL Central looks very winnable and that is a generous description.

That doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been some positives to take away so far. Riley Greene was looking like a star in the making before he got hurt and Eduardo Rodriguez had also been awesome before he, too, got hurt (you may be sensing a theme). Rodriguez’s injury came at an inopportune time as he is among the bigger prizes at the trade deadline coming up, but his injury is minor enough that Detroit should be able to get a nice return for him regardless.

All of the injuries and, well, general badness means that fans need to again look to the future for sources of optimism. The Tigers’ young pitchers should get healthy by the end of the season and could soon be joined by Ty Madden, Wilmer Flores, and Jackson Jobe assuming the latter can get his back healthy. Detroit’s struggling offense should get a boost over the next couple years from guys like Colt Keith and Jace Jung, although we did think that about Spencer Torkelson, too, and that has decidedly not worked out so far.

Who should the Detroit Tigers give extensions to?

While things are far from certain, we should expect a future for the Tigers that almost has to be brighter than it’s present. More work on the roster certainly has to happen before actual contention is in the cards, but that doesn’t mean that the Tigers shouldn’t at least try to lock down some of the guys that are going to be key in the years to come is a similar way to what the Braves have done with several players.

There is certainly some risk in doing so because, as we have seen, prospects flame out all the time. Here is a look at one extension the Tigers should try to make and one that they should avoid. 

Extension to make: Riley Greene

This is a pretty straightforward and easy decision here as Riley Greene is far and away the most talented and currently promising young player on the Tigers’ roster. Before he went down with a stress fracture in his left fibula, Riley was slashing .296/.362/.443 with a 127 wRC+. He is one of those rare talents that can do pretty much anything on a baseball field and has the hit tool to make all of it play.

Realistically, there are few other options for the Tigers to consider here. Spencer Torkelson has the prospect pedigree and name recognition certainly, but he has struggled to be a league-average hitter in the big leagues ever since his promotion despite all of that talent. Zach McKinstry and Jake Rogers are good to great defensively, but don’t bring a lot to the table offensively. As for Detroit’s young pitchers, well…we will talk about them here in a minute.

Giving Greene an extension absolutely comes with some risk. Locking in a guy with less than a full season of big league plate appearances under his belt for what would be some pretty significant money (and that is assuming he would be interested) could easily backfire if he takes a step back and doesn’t produce.

That said, this is a risk that the Tigers at least need to try and take. An extension with Greene this early on would likely only give the team a year or two of extra team control. However, it would also lock in his salary for his arbitration years which is a pretty big deal. Arbitration for players who perform well is not getting any cheaper and getting some cost-certainty for those years has a lot of value when it comes to roster planning.

It does take two to tango here and Greene may think that hitting free agency at 28 years old with his skillset could line him up for a huge payday and he may very well be right. However, getting a big chunk of money guaranteed to him this early in his career also has a ton of value and his recent injury may help remind him that nothing is certain until deals are signed.