Dream Detroit Tigers starting rotation for the 2024 season

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Here we go again with the wishful thinking. We've already looked at a dream Detroit Tigers lineup, so why not a rotation as well? Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has already identified pitching as being the club's priority this offseason, especially after the unsurprising departure of ace Eduardo Rodriguez. What if the money to construct a perfect rotation fell magically into Scott Harris' lap and he could bring it in comically large black briefcases to a few of the many pitching free agents tomorrow? Which of the Tigers currently contracted to the team would be able to make it onto the list? In no particular order, here are five pitchers who would make up a dream rotation for the Tigers.

Tarik Skubal

Of all of the young talent in Detroit, Tarik Skubal deserves a close watch. With 70 fewer innings pitched than most frequently seen Tiger Eduardo Rodriguez, Skubal managed to accumulate a higher fWAR: 3.3 to Rodriguez's 3.0. His sample size might be smaller (he didn't make a start for the Tigers until July as he recovered from flexor tendon surgery), but all of his numbers are still mind-boggling. He finished with a 2.80 ERA over 80 1/3 innings pitched, and struck out 102 batters for a K rate of 32.9%. He also only walked hitters 4.5% of the time and gave up 0.45 HR/9. These are ridiculous numbers that would've racked up a lot of Cy Young votes if he pitched a full season.

With Skubal, dreams and reality come the closest to aligning for the Tigers. He's a dominant, young lefty who, despite being arbitration eligible this year, Detroit should be able to retain without completely breaking the bank. They'll lean on Skubal in a big way next season as part of the real life rotation, whether or not Rodriguez ends up coming back. That might even be an understatement, as it wouldn't be a surprise if the he was the Tigers' opening day pitcher. All fingers are crossed that 2023 was just a preview for a full season of excellence in 2024.

Casey Mize

After two years of injury that kept him off the mound for all of 2023, 2018's first overall draft pick Casey Mize is expected to make a full-time return to Detroit in 2024. Mize's 2021 season is really all we have to go off of — he made seven starts in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and only two in 2022 before he underwent Tommy John surgery — but 2021 was a good one. As the Tigers' No. 2 starter, he started 30 games and pitched 150 1/3 innings for a final ERA of 3.71. He struck out 118 batters and accumulated a 1.2 fWAR.

In the Tigers' real rotation, Mize will probably take his old place as No. 2, and he's a strong addition to the dream rotation. His re-arrival to Detroit will be a crucial piece of the Tigers battle for first in the AL Central division with the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians, which the Tigers will have their best shot at in years in 2024.

Matt Manning

Matt Manning is the last real life Tiger to make the dream rotation. He beats out Joey Wentz and Reese Olson, two other young pieces of the Tigers 2023 core, for this spot. Wentz had a difficult year; with almost 50 fewer innings pitched than Eduardo Rodriguez, he gave up 25 more earned runs and 10 more home runs than Detroit's ace. Olson, with 103 2/3 innings pitched, had a much better year, with a 3.99 ERA and a 24.4% K rate.

Manning, despite only managing 78 innings pitched due to injury, was the starter in the first combined no-hitter in Tigers history, pitching 6 2/3 perfect innings, and he came out with a 3.58 ERA on the year. He's struggled with injury a bit; he only pitched 63 innings in 2022 after multiple trips to the IL. If both Olson and Manning remain healthy next year, they'll both be consistent presences for Detroit's real rotation. In the dream rotation, Manning is a good back end option that we should expect some good outings from in real life as well.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The first of our two dream acquisitions is Yoshinobu Yamamoto of NPB's Orix Buffaloes, the second-most talked about player this offseason after his Samurai Japan teammate Shohei Ohtani. Tracking Yamamoto's path to the major leagues since the WBC has been entertaining, to say the least; during the WBC, all eyes seemed to be on pitcher Roki Sasaki, even though Yamamoto pitched a near identical number of innings during the tournament, came out with a much better ERA, gave up the same amount of walks, and struck out one extra batter.

Sasaki still has a long way to go before he can become an international free agent, but Yamamoto's Buffaloes just gave him the all clear to head to MLB. Predictions for how much he'll make with the right team exceed $200 million, which would make him the recipient of the largest contract offered to a Japanese player coming from NPB, topping Masahiro Tanaka's seven year, $155 million contract with the Yankees.

Yamamoto has thrown two no-hitters in NPB and a three time pitching Triple Crown winner over three consecutive years, and he's only 25. Offseason competition for Yamamoto almost rivals the competition for Ohtani, which is an absolute feat. In the Tigers dream rotation, he would lock in as part of a young pitching staff and be the first Japanese player to come to Detroit in over 20 years.

Aaron Nola

We've already extolled the virtues of Jordan Montgomery and made a case for him as a dream acquisition, so let's switch it up a little here.

By rounding out the dream rotation with former Phillies ace Aaron Nola, the Tigers would have an efficient, enviable mix of experience and youth. Nola is the absolute definition of a workhorse; he's pitched 160 or more innings every year since 2017 (barring the COVID season) for a 3.69 ERA during those years, and has struck out over 200 batters every season since 2018. As a free agent this offseason, he was always going to make a lot of money with a new team, but his postseason appearances made an argument for even more. He pitched 23 innings, struck out 23 hitters, and only allowed six runs to make up a 2.35 ERA.

Nola's only 30 and has clearly been able to stay healthy over his already long career in the major leagues. In this dream rotation, the Tigers have written up a contract that will retain Nola for six years to see him to the end of his career, and he becomes a key player in this young, exciting, literally to-good-to-be-true rotation.

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