Projecting Tigers starting rotation after Jack Flaherty trade (and troubling depth)

The Tigers trading Jack Flaherty at the deadline looked like it pretty much had to be done. He was Detroit's best chance at getting a few ranked prospects back from a team with a great farm system. Out of the four notable trades they made during the lead up to and on July 30, the Tigers received seven prospects/minor leaguers in return — two ranked Dodgers prospects for Flaherty.

That return was underwhelming, to put it generously, and after the deal came down, it raised the question of whether the Tigers actually should've just kept him if they were going to let him go for so little.

Given the state of the rotation now, that question is becoming all the more prescient. As of July 31, the Tigers have two healthy starters in Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero — maybe three if you count Bryan Sammons, who pitched 7 1/3 innings on Monday and gave up five runs, including three homers, against the Guardians.

Reese Olson went onto the 15-day IL on July 21, and Casey Mize was moved to the 60-day on Monday to make room on the roster for Sammons, making him ineligible to pitch until early September.

Assuming that it'll take more than 15 days for Olson to come back from injury (which feels safe to say), what is the Tigers rotation going to look like going forward?

Projected Detroit Tigers rotation after Jack Flaherty trade

1. Tarik Skubal
2. Keider Montero
3. Kenta Maeda
4. Bryan Sammons
5. Bullpen day?

No surprises here: Tarik Skubal is the Tigers' ace and he'll stay at the top of the rotation accordingly. However, right after Skubal, things start to look dicey. Keider Montero moves up into the second spot behind Skubal, but pretty much only because he has marginally more seniority than the last two names included here. He's made seven starts for the Tigers this season, and only one has looked even remotely okay. In his last start against the Twins, he pitched five innings and gave up eight hits and six runs (five earned). It's far from ideal, but such is the state of the Tigers rotation.

This also means that the Tigers will probably have to promote Maeda back to the rotation from the bullpen. He was demoted on July 11, two days after another disastrous start when he went only 2 2/3 innings and gave up six runs. His first game out of the bullpen went pretty well, but he has a 5.14 ERA over this last two. For a single glimmer of hope, we can look to his five-inning appearance on July 28, when he only gave up one run. That's probably all the Tigers needed to see to bump him back up to the rotation again.

Sammons will also have to stay despite his yikes-inducing debut, and the Tigers' No. 23 prospect Lael Lockhart could join him. One might think the Tigers would go straight to Matt Manning, who was their go-to 27th man at the beginning of the season, but he's struggled mightily in Triple-A since going back down in late May and was placed on the IL for a lat strain after his July 14 appearance. Lockhart was very shaky right after he was promoted to Triple-A earlier this season but has leveled out a lot in July, with three scoreless starts and a one-hit, six-inning outing on July 25.

If you're hopeful for a Jackson Jobe call up, you'll probably be disappointed. The Tigers have said that they aren't willing to let Jobe skip Triple-A, even though he's been dominating with the SeaWolves.

This is ... bleak. It makes looking back at the Flaherty trade even harder to do. Maybe the Tigers should've just held onto him all along.