Royals vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Monday, June 19

Jun 18, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Maton (9) makes a
Jun 18, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Maton (9) makes a / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers remain in shouting distance in the AL Central, five games back of the first place Twins, and the team will look to build forward with an early week series against the last place Kansas City Royals.

The Royals start Jordan Lyles, who is on an epic run of futility on the mound, 0-11 on the year and Kansas City has lost every single game (14) he has started. Can the Tigers take advantage and improve its standing in the division?

Here are the odds for Monday's matchup:

Royals vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Royals vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Lyles has been a disaster this season, but are the Tigers the team to take advantage? Detroit is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball and Lyles is owed some positive regression if his underlying metrics are any indication.

Lyles has an ERA that sits at 6.89, a dismal mark, but he is standing less than 50% of batters this season, one of the lowest marks for starting pitchers in baseball this season. His xERA is more than a run lower at 5.03, against a limited offense like the Tigers (hitting only .229 on the year, 26th in the big leagues), Lyles may pitch better than expected.

The same can be said for Tigers rookie Reese Olsen. While a much smaller sample size of just two starts, Olsen's numbers are a bit inflated after a poor start against arguably the best offense in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, allowing six earned runs in over three innings of work. However, he'll face a poor Royals lineup on Monday night.

Kansas City has the second lowest on-base percentage in baseball this season and has scored the fewest runs in baseball this month (46).

Back the under despite the poor numbers for both starting pitchers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.