Tigers Playoff Odds: Detroit improves fortunes with series win over Red Sox

The Tigers hosted the Red Sox at Comerica this weekend, looking for not only their third straight series win but a potential huge step forward in their improbable late-season surge and outside chance at a Wild Card spot. Detroit hasn't been to a postseason since 2014, when the Orioles swept them in the NLDS, and have been stuck in mediocrity or worse ever since.

But these Tigers are hot, and they were slowly but surely creeping up on the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings after taking two of three from the Angels. They fought Boston valiantly in the opener, coming from behind to tie the game at four runs apiece in the bottom of the ninth, but the Red Sox got the better of reliever Sean Guenther in extras to take the game 7-5.

Games 2 and 3 were both low-scoring and maybe a little too close for comfort. On Saturday, the scoring ended in the second inning with a nice two-run double for Trey Sweeney, but it was enough to seal a win with Tarik Skubal on the mound. He pitched through the eighth for the first time in his career and struck out eight, becoming the first pitcher in baseball to reach 200 strikeouts this year.

In the finale, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson powered the Tigers to a win on two two-run homers to take the series for Detroit. With another series win in the books, how close are the Tigers, really, to a Wild Card spot?

Tigers' playoff odds continue to gradually increase with series win over Red Sox

After making quick work of the Red Sox, the Tigers traveled to San Diego to play three against the Padres. They dropped their first game on Monday in a shutout for Joe Musgrove and the Pads' bullpen, but the Red Sox also lost. Through Monday, Sept. 2, the Tigers are five games out of the last playoff spot, and just a half-game behind Boston. The Royals, who currently hold the last Wild Card spot, are currently stuck in a six-game losing streak.

Per FanGraphs, the Tigers have a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs, while the Red Sox's hold has slipped to 14.2%. The Royals are still sitting nicely at 78.1% odds, but they also have a much more difficult schedule ahead of them through the rest of the season than the Tigers.

The Tigers and Royals will also see each other one more time this year, starting on Sept. 17. If the Royals and Red Sox keep slipping, then there's a chance that this race could go into the very last week of the season. There are still a lot of "ifs" in this equation, but the Tigers will almost certainly be playing meaningful baseball through these last few weeks of 2024.