After a loss in Game 1 of this three-game weekend series, the Detroit Tigers battled back yesterday to take a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Twins. Behind a two-run single from Zack McKinstry the Tigers moved to 33-42, 4.5 games behind first place Minnesota at 39-39. The Twins only hold a one game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central.
For the rubber match of this divisional rivalry the Twins will hand the ball to Bailey Ober who is 4-4 with a 2.83 ERA on the year. The Tigers will counter with 3-3 Michael Lorenzen making his 13th start of the year. Lorenzen comes in with an even 4.00 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for this early start in Detroit.
Twins vs. Tigers odds, run line and total
Twins vs. Tigers prediction and pick
Minnesota needs this win to take the series and get back over .500, and from the looks of Ober’s 2.83 ERA they have the right man on the mound. However, I’m here to tell you that they don’t. I’ve been fading Ober for a while and for good reason. The Twins are only 6-5 in his starts despite that stellar ERA, but it’s much more than that.
In his last two starts Ober has given up four home runs and 14 hits in 12.0 innings of work. He has an average strikeout rate of 23.2% with a really good walk rate, but his expected slugging is .443 which is 27th percentile in baseball. Ober’s fielding independent pitching is 3.84, over a full run higher than his ERA and his expected ERA is 4.05.
In June Detroit is 25th in team OPS and their 77 runs scored is 24th. They are by no means lethal offensively and their lineup has plenty of holes, but Spencer Torkelson has four home runs this month and has driven in 10 runs, so has Javier Baez with his two doubles, three triples, and two home runs. Andy Ibanez has been a good addition to the lineup with a .971 OPS this month. That’s enough weapons to do some damage against Ober who even despite shaky starts in his last two is still due for big regression.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change