What Keider Montero must prove to earn Tigers rotation spot beyond 2024

Against all odds, the Tigers' pitching strategy since the trade deadline has actually been working. With Casey Mize back in the rotation, Detroit is back up to three starters with Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero, but they're still going to the bullpen to open games regularly. The Tigers' relievers have stepped up, and in August they collectively pitched for the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.06, just behind the Astros.

Still, this is by no means a long term solution. The Tigers don't have any internal answers with Jackson Jobe still firmly in Double-A, so while they could probably get away with being lax on the position player free agent market, they have to buy a couple of starters.

Skubal and Montero were on their own in the "rotation" for a long time with both Mize and Reese Olson on the IL. Skubal has been Skubal; his Cy Young case was basically solidified with his most recent start, when he pitched eight innings and allowed just run while striking out eight batters, including his 200th of the season.

But where does Montero fit into the equation? Before the Tigers traded Jack Flaherty and lost Olson, Mize, and sent Kenta Maeda to the bullpen, they recalled Montero and gave him the ball twice in May and June, and neither start was exactly reassuring. He's been a steady presence since early July, but has he done enough to guarantee a spot in the rotation next season?

Has Keider Montero made a good enough argument to stay with the Tigers next season?

Montero's shown promising flashes during this third stint in the majors, the latest on Aug. 17, when he pitched five scoreless innings. He also has three quality starts under his belt, including an Aug. 6 start when he went six innings, only gave up one run, and struck out a career-high eight batters. However, he's also given up five or more runs in three starts, and four runs in two more. Three of his secondary pitches (knuckle curve, changeup, sinker) have .300+ batting averages against, and his fastball has yielded a .270 average.

Without those first two blowups in May and June, he has a 4.57 ERA through 11 starts in July and August, which is decent but far from ideal. While the spending-averse Tigers might not want to find three starters on the free agent market and be inclined to keep Montero at the back of the rotation as a cost-saving measure until Jobe or other top prospects are ready to come to the majors, Montero's minor league options would also make him easy to send back to Triple-A for any reason.

Through these last 20-odd games of the season, he needs to put forth some quality starts and show that his stuff can miss bats more consistently if he wants to solidify his place in 2025.