Projecting a contract extension for Detroit Tigers All-Star Riley Greene

The Tigers finally have the young and talented (and cheap) foundation they've been working to build up for years, and at the center, holding everything together, are Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene.

Skubal was getting Cy Young hype before the season even started; he was coming back from an injury-shortened year in 2023, but his 2.80 ERA over 80 1/3 innings gave the Tigers a lot to be optimistic about. Greene was also coming off of an injury-shortened year that also showed a lot of promise, but a rare position player Tommy John surgery made fans a little more doubtful.

Fast forward a year, and Greene was right there alongside Skubal as an All-Star (after being passed over in the fan vote but recognized by the player vote), and he got his due for his work in left field with a Fielding Bible Award after being snubbed of a Gold Glove nomination. He still missed a little bit of time this season, but he batted .262 with an .827 OPS, over 30 points higher than his OPS in 2023. He had 24 homers and 74 RBI to lead the Tigers in both categories.

The Tigers will have more money to play with this offseason, and while they should definitely use some of it to try to extend Skubal, they should also give considering giving one to their only first-round pick between 2016 and 2020 with actual star potential.

What could a Riley Greene extension look like for the Tigers?

Greene is just 24 years old, and 2025 is his last year before arbitration eligibility, so he'll still be making league minimum next season unless the Tigers offer him more. (He might also be Super 2 eligible, which would allow him to earn more next year due to his service time, but that won't be confirmed until early November). Either way, he's under team control through 2028, so any contract extension would have to be at least four years long, and Greene's work so far has definitely merited more.

We can probably look to Yordan Alvarez's six-year, $115 million extension with the Astros back in 2022 for a good comp here. Alvarez was a little older than Greene is when he accepted the extension, but he had a comparable amount of service time by then and is also a left fielder. He's turned into a DH more often than a left fielder, though, and Greene's ability in the outfield has to be taken into account here.

Greene just turned 24, so we're going to throw another year on for seven total. Alvarez's paydays year over year are set to fluctuate, but his contract has an AAV of $19.67 million. For Greene, we'll propose $126 million over those seven years, for an AAV of $18 million. That would put him right aroundJung-hoo Lee but just below George Springer in terms of total value. Remember, Greene has only 329 career games under his belt, so it's hard to give him market value for some guys who have been around for far longer. Either way, though, this is a significant pay raise that would be hard for him to turn down if it was presented to him.

It'd be a leap for the Tigers, but they've been committed to their young players to a point where fans have been (rightfully) frustrated with them in the past. The best way to actually put their money where their mouths are? Extend the centerpiece of their lineup.