Stunning Jack Flaherty stat could be the key to his redemption arc with Tigers

Apart from Tarik Skubal, the Tigers' rotation has been entirely too unpredictable this season. Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty, the only other starting pitchers who have been with the team all year, have become two of their biggest wild cards as the Tigers approach the postseason.

Mize's early season success has proven to be more sustainable than Flaherty's, and he's had a better bounce back so far from a 5.81 ERA August. Flaherty posted a 5.51 ERA last month and hasn't recovered quite as well through two starts in September.

The real difference is that Mize seems to have found more of a plateau, while Flaherty has very high highs and very low lows. Mize isn't a guy you would really depend on to throw a shutout (only two of his outings have been scoreless), but he's only given up 4+ runs in six out 25 starts. Flaherty has thrown six shutout starts, but also has nine 4+ run starts out of his 29.

Tigers fans have been begging to see some consistency from Flaherty, but it just doesn't look like that's going to happen. In September alone, he's pitched a 4 1/3-inning start and gave up four runs, and then went five scoreless.

However, there's a weird trend with Flaherty that should give Tigers fans some hope for how he'll fare in the postseason. He has a 2.19 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 against playoff contenders.

Jack Flaherty's weird excellence against postseason contenders is a hopeful sign for Tigers' playoff chances

Flaherty's worst start of the year against any of the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Padres, Brewers, Mariners, and Blue Jays was his April 28 appearance against Houston, when he gave up four runs over five innings. But his best start of the year also came against the Astros on Aug. 18 — seven innings pitched, zero runs.

His postseason history isn't fantastic — he had a 7.36 ERA last year for the Dodgers against the Padres, Mets, and Yankees — but it seems that he's turned on a new mode against teams that actually matter in 2025.

If/when the Tigers clinch the AL Central, their likeliest opponents in the ALDS are the Astros or Mariners. He pitched five innings and gave up two earned runs in his one start against Seattle this year, and he might get a chance to improve his stats even further when the Tigers wrap up their regular season against them.

So if we can't have consistency, then maybe we'll at least see some excellence when it really counts, and maybe that'll make it easier for Tigers fans to swallow when Flaherty almost inevitably exercises his player option for 2026.