Talking heads' Tarik Skubal takes now looking foolish as Tigers continue to stumble

When the Detroit Tigers stayed conservative with their moves at the 2025 trade deadline, president of baseball operations Scott Harris opened himself to criticism for his lack of urgency and aggressiveness for a first-place team looking to make another deep postseason run.

Yes, the Tigers added five Major League pitchers at the deadline, but none of them were the kind of "big splash" additions one would expect for a team in their position. (And one of them didn't even make it to the end of the season before being DFA'd.)

Harris was criticized not only for failing to boost his team's World Series odds in 2025, but for failing to maximize the Tigers' competitive window with ace Tarik Skubal, who is set to become a free agent after the 2026 season (and is not expected to sign a contract extension with Detroit before then).

However, perhaps Harris was onto something at the trade deadline when he refuted the claim that a "Skubal window" even existed, and we are seeing that reality play out in real time.

Tigers' Tarik Skubal 'window' undercut by late-season volatility

The "window" idea is partly built on Skubal's dominance, but he has been prone to more uneven outings in the second half of the season, giving up three or more earned runs in multiple starts in August and September.

Looking back at 2024, while Skubal's ERA was actually a hair better in the second half (2.37) than it was in the first (2.41), his home run rate and strikeout-to-walk ratios actually got worse. He gave up more contact and missed fewer bats, creating tighter margins for error.

While the sample is small, Skubal has also shown flashes of quality in October, especially in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series and Game 2 of the ALDS last year. But he also has a blemish in a high-leverage elimination start in Game 5 of the ALDS, where he gave up five earned runs over six innings with six hits allowed. That mixed outcome weakens the “he always shows up in October” claim.

In other words, the splits and postseason data don’t support the idea that Detroit's only “good window” is while Skubal is on the roster. In fact, they hint that he has vulnerabilities late in the season. A sustainable competitive window would require depth, bullpen strength, and lineup consistency – not just one ace arm.

Skubal’s second-half and playoff struggles make it clear the Tigers’ ceiling is not defined by him alone. His dip in dominance reinforces that the organization must build a complete roster if they want to stay relevant, no matter how long he remains in Detroit.