Tarik Skubal contract prediction should have Tigers trying to hammer out deal ASAP

Through just three starts in spring training, Tarik Skubal has already made it clear he's in good shape to live up to his Triple Crown, Cy Young-winning 2024 season. While it's never wise to overreact to spring training stats, it's undeniable that he still looks incredible; he's been using all of his pitches and his first two appearances/five innings comprised of two-hit, no-run baseball with four strikeouts.

He wavered a little in his most recent start against the Phillies, going 3 1/3 innings and giving up four hits, including a homer. But he still struck out four, and his spring ERA is sitting at 2.16 with at least a couple more starts expected.

After his 2024 campaign, the question was whether or not the Tigers would be able to extend him, and for how much. They opened up discussions in the offseason and didn't get close, but they did agree to pay him $10.15 million to avoid arbitration in his second year of eligibility, and he won't be a free agent until the end of 2026.

Extending Skubal will be a challenge for a myriad of reasons, but if The Athletic's latest prediction (subscription required) for a contract — seven years, $200 million — is the real figure he's aiming for, then the Tigers shouldn't hesitate.

The Athletic's contract prediction for Tarik Skubal should leave Tigers with no excuse not to extend him

Seven years and $200 million is exactly what Alex Bregman was looking for in his free agency, and the Tigers actually got incredibly close to matching it, offering six years and $171.5 million. Comparing position players to pitchers is kind of an apples-to-oranges situation, but Skubal is two years younger and has the chance to become a franchise-defining player. It still stings that the Tigers couldn't get Bregman, but who better to redirect the money to than Skubal?

If seven years and $200 million would be enough to persuade Skubal and his agent Scott Boras, who doesn't like his clients to accept extensions, then the Tigers should be angling for that right now. It would also be a nice figure for Skubal to show the MLBPA (he was elected to an executive subcommittee this offseason) and set a bar for pitchers in the league.

Skubal's the most exciting pitcher to come out of the Tigers organization since Justin Verlander. They managed to work out a long-term contract with him, so there's no reason they shouldn't have a chance at nailing Skubal down.