This crazy stat shows how much danger Tigers would be in without Tarik Skubal

With a little less than three weeks left of the regular season, the Tigers are all but guaranteed a spot in the postseason and at least a No. 2 seed bye into the ALDS assuming they can keep things going smoothly.

The Guardians and Royals aren't totally out of the playoff picture yet — they're 2.5 and 3 games back of the Mariners, who currently hold the last Wild Card spot — and there's technically a non-zero chance of either catching up to the Tigers despite being 8.5-9 games back in the division, but the chances of that happening are so slim that they might as well just hand the AL Central to Detroit.

So the Tigers are in good shape in that regard, but fans know that there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. Chief among them is starting pitching.

Other than Tarik Skubal, no one in the Tigers' rotation is very trustworthy. Casey Mize had a nice bounce-back start his last time out but has regressed significantly in the second half. Jack Flaherty is a total wild card. Charlie Morton has a 6.09 ERA since joining the Tigers, and Chris Paddack was just demoted to the bullpen.

Skubal starts are still all but guaranteed wins for the Tigers, but they often stand out as being Detroit's lone win in a lost series. Since June 12, Detroit is 26-33 (.441) when anyone other than Skubal is on the mound.

Tigers' below-.500 record on non-Tarik Skubal days shows the rotation would be lost without him

There's a lot to unpack there, and most pressing is how a rotation like that will fare in the postseason, but it also reinforces how desperately the Tigers need to extend or re-sign Skubal. Regardless of what happens this season, there'll be a cloud over the entirety of Detroit's 2026. National media outlets have already started speculating about where Skubal will end up in free agency, and for how much money, but it'll grow exponentially in his walk year, especially if he manages to win the Cy Young for the second season in a row.

The Tigers could, should, and probably will go out and get more pitching help in the offseason with Morton, Paddack, and maybe Flaherty leaving. They could do some unexpected spending to build up a better rotation around Skubal for 2026.

Still, it's clear that Skubal is gunning for the richest contract ever for a pitcher, and he deserves it. Apart from Paul Skenes, there's no one in baseball doing it quite like Skubal. The Tigers could hold out hope on Jackson Jobe or Troy Melton (or any number of their top pitching prospects), but they have a guaranteed star right now who they should keep no matter how much money they might be paying him when he's in his late 30s and well past his prime.

It's not hyperbolic to say that the rotation — maybe even the team as a whole — would not have been successful this season without Skubal. He could continue to be that kind of anchor for the rest of his career as long as the Tigers don't let him slip away.