This short-term Tarik Skubal contract pitch could revive Tigers' chances

Things don't exactly look great for the Detroit Tigers when it comes to their chances of keeping Tarik Skubal around beyond the 2026 season. Skubal's arbitration hearing has turned into a circus, and the impression is that he will eventually be pitching elsewhere.

The tiniest bit of hope the Tigers could have is this year's free-agent class. Kyle Tucker took a creative short-term deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers that maxes out at four years with an AAV around $60 million. Elsewhere, Bo Bichette took a three-year deal with the New York Mets with an AAV of $42 million. Each deal has opt-outs, but it's possible that they can serve as a potential blueprint for Skubal to remain in Detroit.

Tigers’ shot at keeping Tarik Skubal might hinge on this contract idea

For the second time this month, the voice of reason is surprisingly The Athletic's (subscription required) Jim Bowden. With how the market has played out this winter, Bowden suggests that the Tigers propose a four-year offer to Skubal worth $280 million.

Now, before Detroit gets its hopes up, Bowden casually glosses over the context of the contracts handed out to Tucker and Bichette.

Tucker entered the offseason as the top free agent on the board, but never quite received the $400 million offer many suspected would come his way. Sure, the Toronto Blue Jays offered $350 million for the next 10 years, but the Dodgers' contract sees Tucker getting paid handsomely now with the chance to cash in on a lucrative long-term contract in a couple of years.

Short of something disastrous happening to Skubal in 2026, his free agency shouldn't be compared to Tucker's. Tucker had a prolonged offensive slump at the end of the 2025 season and faced questions about his durability.

Assuming Skubal stays healthy and is, well, the pitcher he's been over the last three years, his market isn't going to stall next offseason. There is going to be a team willing to give him the richest starting pitcher contract in the history of baseball.

Even Bichette's contract was more an indicator of him cashing in on an absurdly high contract offer from the Mets, and leaving the door open for a long-term contract in the next year or two.

As hopeful as it may be to wish that Skubal would be willing to take the proposal Bowden suggested to end the drama Detroit, it remains based on a reality that doesn't apply to the American League Cy Young winner's situation.