Tigers' arbitration gambit backfired spectacularly with Tarik Skubal's arbitration win

No one had any real sense of how the Tigers' arbitration hearing against Tarik Skubal would play out. Insiders and fans speculated all they wanted, but there was never a clear victor — and anyone who might tell you they knew one side or the other would win is lying to you.

The Tigers had over 50 years of precedent in their favor. Skubal had his raw talent, two Cy Youngs, and a very good agent. Even after the Tigers came out of nowhere to sign Framber Valdez to a three-year $115 million deal on Wednesday, hours after the hearing, there was no way of truly knowing which way the arbitration panel would go.

The hearing took place on Wednesday, and fans have been anxiously awaiting word ever since. Jeff Passan finally had the news on Thursday afternoon: Tarik Skubal won his arbitration case. He'll make $32 million, as opposed to the $19 million the Tigers filed at. He'll be not only the highest-paid pitcher to come out of arbitration but the highest-paid player in the history of the system, leaving Juan Soto's record in the dust.

Tarik Skubal wins arbitration hearing against Tigers, will make a record-setting $32 million in 2026

This has massive implications for the Tigers' payroll. Per Cot's Contracts, they were sitting at $171 million with a projected $25.5 million salary — the midway point between the team's and Skubal's filing numbers. Valdez's expected $38.33 million a year (the actual breakdown of the money has yet to be revealed) already put the Tigers above the $200 million mark. Skubal's win will send them even higher.

This is spending we haven't seen from the Tigers ... ever. The last time the payroll got this high, it was 2017, and they didn't break the $200 million ceiling.

For a lot of fans, this is vindication. Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball, and he should be paid as such. Arbitration and free agency are very different processes, yes — but for the best pitcher in baseball to ask for a salary reflective of his market value was well within his rights. If he wins a third Cy Young in 2026, $32 million will look like a steal.

But this has massive implications for the future of arbitration. Every superstar still under team control just got a lot more expensive when it's their turn. Scott Boras wanted to use Skubal to blow up the system, and that's exactly what happened.