Tigers' arbitration settlement with Tarik Skubal could favor contract extension talks

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal made just $2.65 million for his award-winning season, a bargain-basement price for a coveted ace by anyone's standards but understandable given the fact that he spent a large chunk of 2023 on the IL.

Skubal's success in 2024 wasn't totally unprecedented — he had a 2.80 ERA in the 80 1/3 innings he pitched in 2023 — but no one could've predicted he'd be quite as dominant as he was. His 6.3 bWAR led all of baseball, and his 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, 18 wins helped him capture the AL Triple Crown, which made him the easy favorite for the Cy Young and hinted at a massive payday on the horizon.

Skubal and the Tigers have reportedly had conversations about an extension, but the club's early offerings haven't been at all persuasive, and Skubal's new role as a member of the MLB Players Association's executive subcommittee made the possibility of extending him seem even more distant.

However, on Thursday, both parties agreed to a new contract for 2025 to avoid arbitration at $10.15 million, which completely blows most predictions ($8 million) out of the water. If the Tigers are willing to show him this sort of good faith now, it could mean that they're ready to take it up a notch in extension talks.

Tigers, Tarik Skubal agree to $10.15 million contract to avoid arbitration

MLB Trade Rumors, whose predictions typically end up on the more conservative side, guessed he would get $8 million, while Spotrac predicted $11.2 million. Skubal's $10.15 million for 2025 marks a $7.5 million raise from 2024 and makes him the second highest-paid pitcher on the Tigers' payroll, behind Alex Cobb and in front of Kenta Maeda, who will make $10 million in 2025.

Predictions for what a Skubal extension might look like have been all over the place, with some insiders even suggesting he could get upwards of $400 million if he continues to perform at the same level he exhibited in 2024.

Skubal has one year of arbitration eligibility left before he becomes a free agent, which gives Detroit some time to see if he keeps ascending and evaluate accordingly, and then to gather the courage to give him that massive contract if he does. If the amount of money that they're giving Skubal this year is anything to go by, they're betting on him to do exactly that. And hopefully it bodes well for their future together. Detroit has typically proven to be cheap in the arbitration process in recent years, but Skubal has forced them to act differently.