Tigers are ready to stomp ridiculous 2025 PECOTA projections into the dirt

After the Detroit Tigers' magical run to the ALDS in 2024, the expectations surrounding the team heading into 2024 are sky high. But apparently, no one told the PECOTA projections.

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is Baseball Prospectus' system used primarily for projecting individual player performance, but it can also be used to project overall team performance and records. It uses predicted depth charts to establish the projected runs for and against each team, and determines a projected win total based on those numbers.

Well, PECOTA's projected overall standings and playoff odds for the 2025 season were released last week, and they weren't kind to the Tigers. More specifically, they project Detroit to go 79-83 in 2025 and finish in fourth place in the American League Central. Look, we know that these projections aren't 100% accurate; but that seems shockingly off base.

Tigers are ready to stomp ridiculous 2025 PECOTA projections into the dirt

Fret not, Tigers fans; this team's outlook for 2025 may not be as bad as it sounds. Take last season, for example; PECOTA picked the Tigers to go 75-87 in 2024, and they exceeded that projection by 11 wins and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

The Tigers already have a better starting point this year, as PECOTA's baseline projection is up by four games over last year's. In other words, if the Tigers are going to exceed this year's projections and make the playoffs, they won't have to make up quite as much ground in the standings to do so.

A quick glance at the rest of PECOTA's projections for the AL Central this year also show the division is expected to be pretty wide open. Like last year, the Minnesota Twins are expected to take the crown, but we saw how that turned out.

With their roster from last season almost entirely intact, plus the additions of free agents Jack Flaherty, Tommy Kahnle, Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb, the Tigers still look like a team that will challenge for a playoff spot and even the AL Central division title in 2025. They've already proven PECOTA wrong once; there's no reason to believe they can't do it again.

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