Tigers can own FOX analysts’ picks with crazy historical stat in their corner

Just a few short months ago, the Detroit Tigers were the best team in baseball. But after a colossal late-season collapse that almost caused them to miss the playoffs entirely, much of the baseball world has lost faith in their ability to contend for a World Series title this year.

Detroit took down the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Wild Card round to advance to the ALDS for a showdown with the Seattle Mariners. They even took Game 1 from the Mariners, winning 3-2 in 11 innings on Saturday, but that still wasn't enough to convince a panel of FOX MLB analysts that the Tigers would be able to advance to the ALCS for the second year in a row.

All four analysts – David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Dontrelle Willis – picked the Mariners to win the series against Detroit. Rodriguez projected that Seattle would get the job done in four games, while the other three predicted the best-of-five series would go the distance.

Tigers can prove FOX analysts wrong in ALDS predictions, with history on their side

The series is currently tied at 1-1 after Seattle won Game 2 on Sunday. So, the Tigers are still very much in the mix, regardless of what the FOX MLB naysayers have to say about it.

Tigers fans also have every reason to believe that the four panelists will soon be eating their words. In the expansion era (since 1961), teams that win the first game of a multi-game playoff series in extra innings are 25–2 in series outcomes, according to Elias Sports Brureau. The two exceptions were the Oakland Athletics in the 2003 ALDS against the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2022 World Series against the Houston Astros.

So, while it's hardly a guarantee, the numbers favor the Tigers to take the series from Seattle after the Tigers' victory in Game 1. Detroit nearly crushed the Mariners' hopes in Game 2 by tying things up in the eighth after Spencer Torkelson's two-run double. Though they coughed up the lead in the bottom half, it just showed that this Tigers team is resilient and won't be going away quietly, even if their offense isn't great.

The series now heads to Detroit, with Game 3 set for Tuesday at Comerica Park, where the Tigers will have the hometown crowd on their side.