Tigers fans shouldn't be so quick to dismiss Emilio Pagán's addition to the bullpen

Late in the evening on November 10, the Detroit Tigers made the first major move of the 2026-2027 offseason by signing Emilio Pagan to a one-year, $11 million contract.

Because of Pagan's status as a primary closer, his comparable numbers to Kenley Jansen, and his similarly advanced age, it immediately led to a polarized fan response, with some optimistic about the signing, and others seeing it as more of the same problem from the past two seasons.

Because hindsight is always clearer than foresight, there's no way to know if these instincts are correct, but this signing is a bit more apt for the current bullpen core than simply filling Jansen's void.

Pagan at a glance

Despite the 2026 Tigers bullpen being objectively poor in high leverage situations, they were largely only poor in those situations. The overall pen posted an ERA of 3.84, and the major concern came from their middling walk rates overall, and their rather low strikeout rates. Drew Sommers and Will Vest represent clear low-walk, high-strikeout arms, but Sommers was rather poor in the eighth inning overall, and Vest's health is very much in question after a hip surgery ended his 2026 in July. Everyone else was a clear contact specialist.

But this is actually what makes the Pagan signing potentially a shrewd one. Pagan wasn't an elite strikeout artist in 2026, but has been in the past, with a 30% K rate or higher in each of 2019, 2022, and 2025. His mark of 25.9% in 2026 isn't shabby, but it also came with a very low 6.3% walk rate. He is not a weak contact specialist whatsoever, allowing a 90.1 MPH average exit velocity, but a lot of that contact went straight up in the air, posting a below average line drive rate against, and an average launch angle of 26 degrees. At Fifth Third Field, a lot of those fly balls should fall into the capable mitts of Riley Greene and Max Clark.

None of his pitches had an expected batting average against of .220, and his four-seam fastball, still a highly effective offering, would have had a .196 batting average against in a luck-neutral environment. Finally, Pagan's home-road splits the past two seasons suggest that his home ballpark may have played against him. His 2.25 ERA in 2026 and 1.80 in 2025 on the road are each about half of his home ERA marks in each of those seasons, with markedly lower home run rates per nine innings.

Supporting the core

The main reason Harris was probably so quick to pounce on him is that his ability to generate respectable swing and miss pairs beautifully with other relievers who don't. If Pagan comes in after a Brant Hurter or Jacob Waguespack outing, he offers a completely different look, and actually helps those two feel ever more effective. Sure, Jansen technically did this as well, but his extremely high walk rates usually allowed the opposition a reasonable shot at sneaking a fly ball out to left field. Pagan's low walk rate means the hitter has to attack, which could potentially lead to more swing-and-miss than he accrued in 2026.

Let's say Troy Melton throws a nice six innings with two runs earned. You bring in Holton for the seventh, and Vest for the eighth who both get clean innings holding the line for Pagan. In comparison with the heavy groundball offerings of the previous two, Pagan's stuff feels quite hittable, but the batter typically will get under his pitches more than they expect due to his 18 inches of Induced Vertical Break on his four-seam fastball, potentially leading to two flyouts and, on average, one strikeout to end the ballgame.

This is all theoretical, but considering this is just the first move of the offseason that isn't merely retaining the members of the 2026 team, this is pretty solid start. Where concern could enter the discussion is if Pagan ends up being the only reliever added this offseason, but considering all the money the team has left to work with, and how pressing the bullpen is as a specific need for the Tigers, it seems unlikely it would be.

Ultimately, the fans who call Scott Harris passive have to find a different critique for the time being with this extremely fast signing of a veteran reliever with some swing-and-miss at his disposal.

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