Tigers insider details why Alex Cobb over Justin Verlander might've been right choice

Sure, it would have been a nice story – Justin Verlander returning to the team that drafted him two decades ago and the city where he became a legend and a future Hall of Famer to finish out his storied career in Major League Baseball – but would it have been the best thing for the Detroit Tigers?

It's a moot point now, as the 41-year-old pitcher signed a one-year, $15 million free agent deal with the San Francisco Giants. Still, the rumors of a potential Tigers reunion and the fact that Verlander's contract with San Francisco is identical to the one Alex Cobb signed with Detroit during Winter Meetings has raised several questions about whether the Tigers made the correct choice with their veteran pitcher signing.

Tigers insider details why Detroit may have made right decision with Alex Cobb over Justin Verlander

To contextualize the Tigers' lone starting pitcher signing this offseason, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press did a side-by-side comparison of three veteran starters who signed one-year, $15 million free agent deals this offseason: Cobb, Verlander and Charlie Morton, the latter of whom signed with the Baltimore Orioles.

At 37 years old, Cobb is the youngest of the three, though he lags behind the other two in terms of games played and innings pitched over the past three seasons due to the fact that he missed the majority of the 2024 campaign with an injury. Taking that into context, Cobb's surface numbers from 2022-24 compare pretty similarly to Verlander's, and in some cases represent a slight upgrade over Morton's.

Petzold further emphasized that the Fangraphs projections for the three pitchers have Cobb finishing with the best WAR (2.0) and the best ERA (3.65) in 2025. In fact, Cobb is the only one of the three projected to finish the season with a sub-4 ERA.

So, while he doesn't have an existing legacy in Detroit and his recent injury history may raise some red flags, Cobb is five years younger than Verlander; he pitched in the playoffs last season; and he rebounded well from his injury. Nostalgia may tug at the heartstrings, but choosing Cobb over Verlander was perhaps a sound baseball business decision on the part of the Tigers. Or, at least, we'll find out in a few months.

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