On arbitration deadline day, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal were unable to come to an agreement on a contract for 2026, his last year of arbitration eligibility ahead of free agency. Figures revealed after the initial news were startling: the Tigers filed at $19 million, Skubal filed at $32 million. There's still time to negotiate before both sides have to appear before an arbitration panel, but that's an astounding gap to try to bridge.
Inevitably, discourse followed. Skubal's argument can be summed up in five words: two-time Cy Young winner. The Tigers' argument might be a little more complex, but it's a lot harder to sell.
So let's parse this out. Choose your fighter.
Tigers vs. Tarik Skubal arbitration battle is dividing fans: Where do you stand?
Choose your fighter: Tigers
The generous take
The Tigers offered Skubal the second-largest arbitration raise for any pitcher since the arbitration system was established in 1974. Jacob deGrom, the current record holder, went from $7.4 million in 2018 to $17 million in 2019, a $9.6 million raise after his 2018 Cy Young season; Skubal going from $10.15 million to $19 million after his own Cy Young season would put him at a $8.85 million bump. 2018 deGrom, though saddled with the curse of never being provided with run support from his Mets offense, was even more dominant than 2025 Skubal.
And the Tigers are not the Mets. Even before New York had truckloads of Steve Cohen's money to play with and were still operating at a mid-market level (they were 11th in spending in 2019), the Tigers were still leagues behind (23rd in 2019). Both have dramatically increased their spending in the time since to rise up the ranks, but that 10+ place gap still exists between them.
At the end of the day, the Tigers are a business, and they presented a figure that felt feasible to them and that they felt acknowledged the value of the player. Baseball salaries have a tendency to skew our understanding of what is and is not a lot of money, but let's not get it twisted here: $19 million is a lot of money. Skubal has his own interests to protect, but so do the Tigers, and they should be allowed to negotiate in a way that serves them in the same way that Skubal does.
Everyone’s grilling the Tigers but not Tarik for being greedy? https://t.co/ok0MNkpMYC
— Jimmy (@L28Jimmy) January 9, 2026
The ungenerous take
The Tigers gave $15 million to Alex Cobb last season, a pitcher who was on the verge of retirement and never logged a major league inning in Detroit. They are the team that set the record for largest arbitration salary given to a pitcher, when they agreed to $19.75 million with David Price in 2015, when he was also in a walk year. Adjusted for inflation, that's $27 million in 2026. That was the Tigers under Mike Ilitch, and this whole thing is an indictment on the front office and how far they've fallen under the lower branch of the Ilitch dynasty.
can’t wait to lose the best pitcher in baseball to free agency because Chris Ilitch doesn’t take his job seriously
— Benson (Miguel Cabrera’s Bat) (@Miggysbat) January 9, 2026
From trade talks to the possibility of an extension growing over more distant, this is the Tigers waving a white flag on any attempt to keep Skubal in Detroit. $19 million does not reflect the value of the player, rather Scott Harris' insistence that there is no Skubal window. He believes that the Tigers can win without Skubal, even though the numbers suggest otherwise, and this amount of money speaks to that belief.
Are the Tigers not a develop-first, homegrown-obsessed team under the younger Ilitch and Harris? Is Skubal not the shining ideal of the "patience is a virtue" strategy that they have extolled and been mocked for, only to have Skubal prove them right? When does development stop and actual contention (which has to include spending) start?
If the Tigers let things go to a hearing, they'll be telling their star player, to his face, exactly why they think he isn't worth as much as he thinks he is. Is that any way to keep him where he is? Would anyone blame him if he were to explicitly ask for a trade in the aftermath?
Choose your fighter: Tarik Skubal/Scott Boras
The generous take
Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball, full stop. No qualifications, no "what about Paul Skenes"es. Tigers fans haven't had a player to rally around like this since Justin Verlander was traded in 2017, and even then, his last season and a half in Detroit was spent on a roster filled with names you can't remember, who put together a barely-above-average winning percentage that didn't get them into the postseason. Tigers fans have watched star after star leave and blossom elsewhere, acting as a feeder team for the big-market clubs. Detroit is a proud city, Detroiters are proud people. In Skubal, there's finally a conduit through which to channel that pride.
Who cares if Skubal is asking for an amount of money that's never been doled out before? Shouldn't an exceptional player get an exceptional amount of money? What more does Skubal have to do to prove it?
Skubal’s market value is at $37.5M. His arbitration number is fair and the Tigers just completely disrespected it. https://t.co/KnoTRFQP38
— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) January 9, 2026
The Tigers letting Skubal get away would be reopening a wound that's scabbed over a little bit by two consecutive postseason appearances that were largely a result of good fortune and solid teamwork. Yes, there are 26 guys on a baseball team, but the front office is delusional if they don't think that Skubal is the linchpin. They are not a playoff team if he isn't on the roster.
Even if the Tigers win over an arbitration panel, they're the only losers in the end. At the end of 2026, they'll just have to watch as a generational talent walks away and signs with a team that values him correctly. Their contention status will plummet and they'll have to deal with a fanbase that is already very accustomed with letting the front office know exactly what they think of them.
The ungenerous take
Everything Skubal has done up to this point has been a charade. The grand tour of Detroit, the pronouncements about wanting to stay after winning his second Cy Young, the "missing home" posts of Comerica Park on Instagram. It's all been of Scott Boras' design.
It's impossible to separate Skubal from his bully of an agent during this process. Skubal is already expected to make an unprecedented amount of money when he hits the free agent market; receiving an unprecedented amount of money in arbitration sends a message to the rest of MLB. If Boras can strong arm an arbitration panel and force the thrifty Tigers to overspend tremendously on one guy, he can do it to anyone else who might be interested in his client's services.
Skubal has been trying to ingratiate himself to fans even more to illicit this exact response: make yourself a darling, redirect all of the vitriol and blame to the front office if you leave.
$32 million would make Skubal not only the highest-paid pitcher in arbitration, but the highest-paid player ever, surpassing Juan Soto's $31 million mark. $32 million isn't an evaluation against his current market value, it's a stance. A statement. And a far too transparent one, at that.
I thought the Tigers offer to Tarik Skubal was reasonable. The real outlier number is the $32m from Skubal’s camp. No pitcher has ever filed for anything close to that in arbitration. It feels more like a symbolic gesture, and I’d be stunned if he wins (or if it goes that far).
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrown0914) January 9, 2026
There will be a time for Skubal to make out like a bandit, and it's not that far off. A $32 million AAV might not be an atrocious ask when he actually has the service time to back it up, but for now he has to operate under the same rules as everyone else.
The conclusion
No matter which side of this you end up on, the Tigers' file-and-trial operation under Harris absolutely has to make an exception for Skubal. If they go to arbitration, the panel will take either Skubal or the Tigers' side, no middle ground. Coming back to the table before things can get to that point could let this end peacefully and with both sides as satisfied as they can be. Maybe they'll even act as a precursor to an extension.
Until a final decision comes down, though, we're going to keep having this argument. It might get ugly. It might make both sides look bad. The one thing we can all agree on? This isn't going to be fun for anybody.
