Weighing the odds Gleyber Torres accepts Tigers' qualifying offer to stay in 2026

Infamous insider and purveyor of useless updates and non-rumors Jon Morosi provided one of the former regarding Gleyber Torres and the $22.025 million qualifying offer the Tigers extended to him. Morosi wrote that while Torres is gauging interest from other teams, he hasn't made a decision on the qualifying offer.

So that tells us nothing.

It was a little surprising that the Tigers offered him the QO after his bad second half (to be fair, he was playing through a hernia) and the infield complications that moved Colt Keith to various positions this season, but it's a smart move. He was still an All-Star, and they'd get draft pick compensation if he declines and signs elsewhere.

But what are the chances he stays vs. goes? The Athletic predicts Torres will get $48 million over three years on a new deal, while ESPN predicts $57 million over three. That would give him either $16 million or $19 million AAV.

It makes sense that Torres would want the security of a longer-term deal, but he won't get more than $22.025 million for a single year, especially not after coming off of a surgery. It'd be a gamble, but he could take the short-term offer, play his heart out, and head back into free agency after 2026 to look for even more money.

Should Gleyber Torres accept the Tigers' $22.025 million qualifying offer?

Whether or not Torres accepts the QO, the Tigers are generally expected to remain involved in his free agent market, and Torres himself has expressed interest in staying. The Colt Keith problem has become less of a question of where Keith will fit into the infield and more a question of whether or not he's actually good enough to be in a full-time role. Having Torres back at second worked all season while Keith made do at first and third.

It'll be easy for Torres to find a new deal in free agency; there's no doubt about that. It's just a matter of how much he's willing to risk. He could take the QO and get the most money but run the risk of underperforming and hurting his value next offseason. He could take the more secure, longer-term deal but leave some money on the table.

Either way, Tigers fans would certainly like to see him back. If he declines the QO, we hope that the front office will go back to the drawing board to figure out how to keep him for another few years.