What are the odds Justin Verlander actually pitches if Tigers do the impossible?

The Tigers have four games against the White Sox on deck, and this is a series that could make the AL Wild Card standings even more chaotic than they already are. If Detroit was to walk away with a sweep, they would be only one game behind Chicago for second place in the AL Central, and potentially just a game away from a Wild Card spot.

A lot would have to go right for that to happen, the Tigers would still have to play six more games with a razor-thin margin of error to actually make it to October.

But these are the circumstances that hang over any possible Justin Verlander return. One last Verlander start at Comerica Park is still up in the air for its own reasons, too, but he and the Tigers are tentatively shooting for him to take the mound on Sept. 26, their second to last game of the season.

If the Tigers are someway, somehow, still in the race by then, would it affect the Tigers' willingness to throw Verlander back out there even if he's healthy enough to do so?

AJ Hinch alluded to the answer. "I'm cautious to throw [a date] out there too firm because a lot of things can happen between now and then," he said. He was directly referring to the boxes Verlander needs to check in his throwing progression, but it also reads like an acknowledgement of the Tigers' slim but still existing chances.

Tigers fans might not get to see one last Justin Verlander start if Tigers pull off improbable comeback

The version of Verlander that Tigers fans have (barely) seen this season is not the Verlander of 2011, 2019, 2022, even 2025. 2026 Verlander is not one that the Tigers can necessarily trust on the mound if they're hanging onto a Wild Card spot by a thread, or if they're just one game away from it in the last few days. Unfortunately, it is possible to count him out these days.

While Tigers fans could certainly be disappointed, and Verlander certainly wouldn't like hearing that he's being scratched because the team doesn't fully believe in him, it would be the best thing for the team.

Verlander has said that he doesn't want his last start to be ceremonial. He wants to get onto the mound and pitch a meaningful game for his team. But there may be a stark difference between what he thinks he's capable of and what he's actually capable of.

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