What're the odds the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal if they lose the arbitration hearing?

The Tigers and Tarik Skubal head into their long-awaited arbitration hearing today in Arizona. The Skubal arb business, the historic $13 million gap between the two parties, the records and precedent he could break if he wins — the whole thing has consumed the Tigers' offseason for the better part of three months.

Detroit has reunited with Kyle Finnegan and signed Kenley Jansen since the arbitration deadline, but the silence on every other front is inextricably linked to Skubal. The Tigers want to know if they'll "save" $13 million they could spend on another starting pitcher. Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, Nick Martinez, and Jose Quintana are among the named targets.

But say the Tigers don't win. Say they're legally obligated to pay Skubal $32 million. Does that make them more inclined to turn around and trade him to a team with far fewer payroll constraints?

The Mets don't have as much to offer after they sent two top prospects to the Brewers in exchange for Freddy Peralta, but the Dodgers are right there. Although Andrew Friedman claims the roster is set, they haven't made a single trade this season and wouldn't say no to reopening the door on Skubal conversations.

Will the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal if they lose their historic arbitration battle against him?

Most insiders agree that, even if the Tigers lose, a trade wouldn't be imminent, but that's saying nothing about the trade deadline. The same question still remains: if the Tigers can still manage to pry a respectable package away from the Dodgers or Mets for just two months of the regular season and the postseason worth of his services? They might find that impossible to pass up.

It will severely impact their own threat level in the postseason — and down the August/September stretch, given their slip last year — but Scott Harris has already established that he doesn't believe in a Skubal window. No doubt the Tigers know what kind of astronomical talent they have on their hands, but they believe they won't be lost without him.

Tigers fans tend to disagree.

Insiders, arbitration experts, and fans are all split on how this is going to pan out. Both sides have comprehensive arguments — the Tigers have the status quo, Skubal has his sheer talent.

The good news (for now) is that Skubal probably won't be going anywhere even if the Tigers have to begrudgingly hand over $32 million. Tigers fans will have to pay for it in a different way, though: watching the team do absolutely nothing to fortify their rotation with less than two months to go before Opening Day.