Why Spencer Torkelson's 2026 was better than it seemed (with one catch)

I'm not pretending Spencer Torkelson was the best hitter on the Tigers in 2026, but I also won't pretend this season was some monstrous step backward for him. The stats tell us that Torkelson was actually very similar to his 2025 "breakout" form.

But there is one specific area of concern that did help make Spencer Torkelson feel like a liability at times. We will explore his actual and expected numbers, and the numbers that need to improve going forward.

2025 vs. 2026

It's very important to keep in perspective that Torkelson wasn't exactly a record-setting first baseman in 2025, but he was pretty clearly a middle-of-the-order bat. I think the gap between Torkelson's perceived performance in 2026 and his actual output are done justice with a comparison to last year's production.

Objectively, his home run total decreased by five. For a fanbase that probably wanted an increase of power, this was certainly not ideal. But looking at his slash lines, we see that Tork really didn't take that big of an offensive step backwards. His .230/.331/.435 mark this year and .240/.333/.456 from last ultimately only show a .023 difference in OPS, and a difference of 113 vs. 119 in OPS+. Even his run production total was virtually identical, knocking in 71 RBIs to last year's 72 in just four more games.

Where we see the biggest drop off is the gap between WAR year over year. While in 2025 he posted a perfectly respectable 2.4 mark, this season, his bWAR was just 1.3, spending over half the season in the negatives.

But even this requires context. His offensive WAR totals year over year on their own end up just 0.5 apart (1.9 vs. 2.4). This is not to say there wasn't regression, but it clarifies that Tork was once again a solid right-handed option for the team, and would not be as easily replaced as many fans claim in the offseason.

Quality of contact vs. expected numbers

Two of the important statistical baskets I frequently draw from to indicate whether a hitter regressed year over year are contact quality metrics and any discrepancy in luck-based stats. Torkelson's hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity did decrease year over year, but not in any meaningful way. He was still above average in all three, and within 5 percentile of his previous rankings in each. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot %, a highly important metric for a pull-happy slugger like himself, improved year over year by nearly 2%, and 9th percentile around the league. His pull-air rate was still over 30%, suggesting that Comerica Park may have contributed to some lack of luck.

In addition, Torkelson consistently made high quality contact when he did get bat to ball. His wOBAcon was .441, good for 91st percentile in MLB, meaning just 9% of hitters do more damage per ball in play. His expected wOBAcon is still over .400 at .402, indicating that he did not get disproportionately lucky.

Underappreciated defensive value

Torkelson graded out horribly at first base in 2026, with -6 DRS, and -2 OAA. Defensive metrics are not fully polished, and sometimes excessively punish a player for having an under-tracked strength. Torkelson led the American League in putouts, double plays, and range factor per nine innings, meaning that he was extremely good in the areas first basemen actually contribute. In addition, Torkelson's scoops continued to be a massive strength, frequently saving errant throws from the other infielders, a skill not heralded by current defensive sabermetrics.

His primary glaring flaw in 2026

After a respectable 26% strikeout rate in 2025 that led to consistent damage over the course of the season, Torkelson posted an inflated 31.7% K rate this season. This came with a 5.5% increase of his whiff rate, despite seeing no significant increase in chase rate. Strikeouts are less important than they've ever been, but providing nothing in nearly a third of your at-bats is still hard to digest. This massive jump is equivalent to the improvement Riley Greene made to his strikeout rate. As a result, his improved .306 average on balls in play was not felt.

Scott Harris mentioned last week that Torkelson is likely to return to the lineup next season. This analysis was meant to show that despite Tork's struggles with consistency this season, he isn't suddenly going to be shipped off.

Right handed pure sluggers have become more of a rarity in today's MLB due to how poorly they tend to age, and the recent focus on athleticism in prospect development. There is still a reason to believe in Tork, but like with all optimism, it's best served with a helping of caution.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow